The Morning Call
1/7/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/metals-mania-continues-mag7-lags-2026
Note: the S&P
managed a close slightly above its all-time high (good news). Under
our time and
distance discipline, it needs to remain there through the close on Friday to confirm
the breakout. If that is successful, the next visible resistance level is the
upper boundary of a very short term uptrend (~7149).
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everything-looks-bullish-right-range-high
Tuesday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Institutional
demand returns to bitcoin.
Trump’s new world order introduces fatter
tail risks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumps-new-world-order-introduces-new-fatter-tail-risks
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
rose 0.3% while purchase applications were down 6.2%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew 7.1% versus +7.6% in the prior week.
The December
services PMI was 52.5 versus consensus of 52.9; the December composite PMI was
52.7 versus 53.0.
The December ADP
private payrolls report showed a gain of 41,000 jobs versus projections of
45,000.
International
November German
retail sales fell 0.6% versus estimates of +0.4%; the December unemployment
rate was 6.3%, in line.
The December
Japanese services PMI was 51.6 versus expectations of 52.5; the December
composite PMI was 51.1 versus 51.5.
The December EU
construction PMI was 47.4 versus forecasts of 46.9; the December German construction
PMI was 50.3 versus 47.0; the December UK construction PMI was 40.1, in line.
December EU CPI
was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%.
Other
Light vehicle sales grew in December.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/light-vehicle-sales-increased-to-160.html
Heavy truck sales collapsed in Q4.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heavy-truck-sales-collapsed-in-q4-down.html
Asking rents declined YoY in December.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/asking-rents-decline-year-over-year.html
Update on real wages and consumer spending.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/test.html
Update of Q4 nowcast.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-expected-to-cool-in-q4-based-on-latest-nowcasts/
Nowcasting 2026 GDP.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/nowcasting-core-gdp
Auto loans deteriorate.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/auto-loans-further-deteriorate
Overnight News
US attempts to board Russian tanker.
Marco Rubio has
told lawmakers that President Trump plans to buy Greenland rather
than invade it, while Trump has asked aids to give him an updated plan for
acquiring the territory.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-discusses-ways-acquire-greenland-military-use-table
China's Foreign
Ministry said China's legitimate rights and interest in Venezuela must be
protected, in regard to US President Trump's statement on Venezuela oil.
The US for the
first time on Tuesday backed a broad coalition of Ukraine's allies in vowing to
provide security guarantees that leaders said would include binding commitments
to support the country if Russia attacks again.
China launched an
anti-dumping probe into Japan’s chipmaking material dichlorosilane, deepening
trade tensions after Beijing imposed export curbs — potentially affecting over
40% of its shipments to the country. Tokyo called the measures unacceptable.
Monetary
Policy
The latest FOMC minutes show growing division
among members.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/06/fomc-minutes-show-divisions
The
Dollar
A new hybrid monetary ecosystem.
The end of dollar rule.
AI
Using the shale boom to judge where we are in
the AI bubble.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/using-us-shale-boom-cycle-gauge-where-we-are-ai-bubble
2026
From Stephen McBride.
From
Alhambra Investments.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-it-aint-what-you-dont-know/?src=news
From Goldman’s new chief equity strategist.
From Goldman’s head of hedge fund trading.
Geopolitics
US exceptionalism versus Chinese uninvestability.
https://research.gavekal.com/article/us-exceptionalism-versus-chinese-uninvestibility-part-i/
Investing
December dividends
by the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/dividends-by-numbers-in-december-2025.html
The latest from John Hussman.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/05/how-bubble-manipulates-time
Stocks and bonds
start year in equilibrium.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-and-bonds-start-year-equilibrium
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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