The Morning Call
1/23/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-stocks-soar-good-news-sparks-plunge-rate-cut-odds
Note: the S&P
sustained its move to the upside but remains below its former all-time high. If
it fails to close above that level (~6927) today, last week’s breakout will be
negated.
Although the Russell
breaks out.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/russell-breaks-out-ai-heats-asia-and-gold-panics
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Tuesday’s bullish
signal.
Garbage stocks on
fire again.
https://www.ft.com/content/a5faea0b-a9a9-4045-a5a3-fe429ae7bbab
Retail investors
bought Tuesday’s dip. (But they haven’t been able to recapture the former all
time high---at least not yet.)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taco-thunder-retail-investors-bought-tuesdays-dip-record-amounts
Why falling bond
volatility matters.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/incredible-move-why-falling-bond-volatility-mattersH
Gold vol panic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-vol-panic-builds-retail-and-ctas-pile
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
November personal
income rose 0.3%, in line; November personal spending was up 0.5% versus +0.1%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/no-mini-recession-during-government.html
The November PCE
index was up 0.2%, in line; the core PCE index was up 0.2% versus up 0.1%.
The January Kansas
City Fed manufacturing index came in at -2 versus consensus of +5.
International
December Japanese CPI was -0.1% versus expectations
of +0.2%
December UK retail
sales grew 0.4% versus estimates of -0.2%; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus
-0.3%; the January consumer confidence index was -16 versus -17.
The January EU
consumer confidence index was -12.4 versus expectations of -13.6.
The January
Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 51.5 versus forecasts of 50.5; the flash
services PMI was 53.4 versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus
50.9; the January German flash manufacturing PMI was 48.7 versus 48.6; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 52.9;
the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the January EU flash
manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus 49.7; the flash services PMI was 54.9 versus
52.9; the flash composite PMI was 51.5 versus 52.3; the January UK flash
manufacturing PMI was 51.6 versus 50.5; the flash services PMI was 54.3 versus
51.5; the flash composite PMI was 53.9 versus 51.7.
Other
November real disposable income was flat.
The
housing market is broken. This video is 23 minutes long but well worth the
view.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/housing-just-broke-again?post=551983
PCE
goods inflation has bottomed.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/pce-goods-inflation-has-bottomed-services-poised-to-explode-higher/
Overnight
News
Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessent said in an interview Thursday that the U.S. relationship with
China has reached a “very good equilibrium” where disagreements are less likely
to turn into full-scale economic conflict as they did last year.
US
House passes package of FY26 funding bills in a major step towards averting
government shutdown on Jan 31st, sending to Senate for final votes.
The EU is
moving to revive its US trade deal after President Trump backed away from his
tariff threat tied to Greenland.
Monetary
Policy
Trump’s spat with
the Fed. I like the author’s analysis of the Fed’s shortcomings but I am
confused by his Alfred Hitchcock conclusion (you think one thing is going to
happen and the exact opposite occurs). The entirety of analysis of the Fed past
performance suggests the need for some kind of change in operation (less power,
a smaller mandate, reform)---which I agree with. Instead of offering some
constructive alternative, his conclusion is that Trump’s solution is a cynical
power grab---which by the way, I also agree with. But any reform rendered by
politicians that takes away power from one entity will almost assuredly give it
to another. In short, the author spoils a perfectly good argument for Fed
reform as an excuse to bash Trump rather than offer a construction solution.
Fiscal
Policy
The cost of the past.
Inflation
The arguments for and against higher inflation.
https://www.ft.com/content/685ea881-657b-4741-a12c-5f027bb44d02
Is
inflation stabilizing at 3% instead of 2%---and what that means for stocks and
bonds.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-bonds-are-not-priced-trump
AI
More
words of caution on AI.
https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/after-ai
Investing
Politics and the Market.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/lets-talk-about-politics/
Stock market
affordability. I am not sure about the author’ logic for ‘growth premium’;
however, if applied to all stocks, it does provide a sense of relative value.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/22/affordability-crisis-stock-market
Six lessons from
Buffett.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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