The Morning Call
8/1/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
The VIX rubber band is about to snap.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-vix-rubber-band-is-about-to-snap?post=512659
The Sweeney top.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-cant-shake-sweeney-top
Dollar death cross
and short squeeze.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/death-cross-short-squeeze-dollars-revenge
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The July Chicago PMI came in at 47.1 versus
estimates of 42.0.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/31/chicago-pmi-jumps-to-4-month-high
July nonfarm
payrolls were up 73,000 jobs versus predictions of 110,000; massive
downward revisions for June and May; average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, in
line.
International
The June Japanese unemployment rate was 2.5%,
in line.
The July Japanese
manufacturing PMI was 48.9 versus consensus of 48.8; the July Chinese Caixin
manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 50.2; the July German manufacturing PMI was
49.1 versus 49.2; the July EU manufacturing PMI was 49.8. in line; the July UK
manufacturing PMI was 48.0 versus 48.2.
The July EU flash
CPI was 0.0% versus expectations of -0.2%.
Other
GDP is still growing.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/economy-back-to-growing
GDP is a worthless
number. https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/31/a_worthless_number_gdp_rises_not_due_to_growth_but_because_its_worthless_1125994.html
Real disposable income down in June.
Don’t fall for the hype.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/dont-fall-for-the-hype?post=512658
Overnight
News
Trump announces new tariff rates.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumps-global-tariff-breakdown-full-country-country-rate-list
Fiscal
Policy
We are lying to ourselves about spending, taxes
and the debt.
https://reason.com/2025/07/31/were-lying-to-ourselves-about-taxes-spending-and-the-debt/
Recession
This analyst is raising the yellow flag.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/june-personal-income-and-spending-very.html
China
China’s factory contraction confirms deflationary
trend.
Investing
Retail is powering
the Market right now.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/whats-really-powering-the-market-right-now?post=512660
What is the ‘illiquidity
premium’?
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/07/29/what-is-the-illiquidity-premium/
Is there an (inverse)
correlation between market cap and dividend yield?
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/market-cap-versus-dividend-yield-for-s.html
The paradox of
skill.
https://www.safalniveshak.com/investing-and-the-paradox-of-skill/
Earnings growth continues
to support Market gains.
Earnings
Growth Continues to Support Market Gains - Carson Group
A word of caution
from Mohammed El Erian.
https://www.ft.com/content/a946bccd-2c40-4dc5-a0ef-d77593bdeeb6
Take August off.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bca-take-august-microsofts-rally-too-perfect
Demand for gold
remains buoyant.
https://www.ft.com/content/6449e34c-2dba-4b44-b5c9-6c916696cf39
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Apple GAAP EPS of $1.57 beats by
$0.14, revenue of $94.04B beats by $4.88B
T. Rowe Price Non-GAAP EPS of $2.24
beats by $0.11, revenue of $1.72B misses by $30M
Exxon Mobil Non-GAAP EPS of $1.64 beats by $0.09, revenue of $81.51B
beats by $1.2B
What
I am reading today
Life
in ancient Babylon.
What
was it like to live in Old Babylon? | National Geographic
It is not too
late to avert dementia.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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