The Morning Call--The risk of 'fiscal dominance'

 

The Morning Call

 

8/21/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-gains-v-shaped-recovery-puts-lipstick-otherwise-pig-day-stocks

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Goldman opines on how to trade this dip.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-leg-momentum-has-done-all-work-heres-how-trade-dip

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-trading-desk-start-buying-dip

 

            S&P weakness likely next week.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/spx-weakness-likely-for-the-next-week?post=516761

           

            Panic or buy the dip.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/too-much-too-fast-panic-or-buy-dip

 

            Gold ready to explode?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-ready-explode-fear-says-yes-cheap-volatility-trade

 

The Market

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 versus estimates of 225,000.

 

The August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was -0.3 versus expectations of +9.0.

 

                        International

 

                          June EU construction output was up 1.7%, in line.

 

The August UK industrial trends orders index was reported at -33 versus consensus of -25.

 

The August Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 49.9 versus projections of 49.4; the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 51.4; the August German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.9 versus 48.9; the flash services PMI was 50.1 versus 50.3; the flash composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.4; the August EU flash manufacturing PMI was 50.5 versus 49.7; the flash services PMI was 50.9 versus 50.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.1 versus 50.8; the August UK flash manufacturing PMI was 47.3 versus 48.6; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 51.7; the flash composite PMI was 53.0 versus 51.8

.

                        Other

 

                          Update on credit card delinquencies.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/19/credit-card-delinquencies-balances-burden-credit-limits-and-collections-in-q2-2025/

 

                          US vehicle sales rose 7.1% in July.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/20/vehicle-sales-rise-7-1-in-july

 

                          Architectural billings remain soft.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/aia-business-at-architecture-firms.html

 

                          Update on median household income.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/real-nonsupervisory-payrolls-and-income.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its latest meeting and they were more hawkish than expected.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-28

 

              The Market is already discounting a Fed rate cut.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/what-wall-street-knows-about-this-fed?post=516814

 

              Will the Fed cut rates with the Market near all-time highs?

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/will-the-fed-really-cut-rates-with-stocks-near-new-highs/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The risk of ‘fiscal dominance’.

              https://www.ft.com/content/8478aaac-0d16-4c52-8d8c-caad02785d20

 

              Another example of the terrible waste in government spending.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/08/20/the_road_less_traveled_the_road_heavily_subsidized_1129815.html

 

              Shut down the BLS.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trump-shouldnt-cook-books-bls-it-doesnt-matter-much-you-think

 

              MAGA antitrust.

              https://fusionaier.org/2025/maga-antitrust-conservative-no-more/

 

              A currency crisis awaits.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/gold-the-us-dollar-and-trumps-handling-of-the-reserve-currency-curse/

 

            Inflation

 

              Will inflation derail Trump’s agenda?

  https://theweek.com/politics/inflation-biden-trump-economy-financial-anxiety-voters?refid=75FFC898AD6883CBB120FC6A86C62323&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20250819&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter

 

              GDP and CPI update.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

 

              Bringing prices down: How’s that going?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/bringing-prices-down-hows-it-going

 

            Tariffs

 

Using tariffs as a foreign policy tool. (a significant portion of this article is repeated twice).

https://providencemag.com/2025/08/from-reagan-to-trump-strategic-trade-in-us-foreign-policy-1/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              On Ukrainian identity

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/08/on-ukrainian-identity-ukraine-as-a-buffer-zone.html

 

     Investing

 

            Updated outlook for S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

               

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Superagers share one common personality characteristic.

            ‘Superagers’ seem to share this one key personality trait | National Geographic     

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Is a second wave of inflation coming?

 

 The Morning Call

 

8/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/sell-all-things-except-bonds

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Pricing in inflation fears.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pricing-recession-fear-goldman-says-its-harder-find-new-macro-tailwinds

 

            Overseas investors return to US market while US investors get cautious.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foreigners-come-back-riskier-us-stock-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.4% while purchase applications were down 3.1%.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese machine tool orders were up 3.0% versus forecasts of -0.5%; the July trade balance was -Y117.5 billion versus +Y250.0 billion.

 

July German PPI was -1.5% versus predictions of -1.4%; July CPI was +0.1% versus +0.2%; core CPI was +0.2%, in line; July EU CPI was 0.0%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Analysis of yesterday’s housing numbers.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/housing-remains-recessionary-why-hasnt.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              No need for a rate cut.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-big-rate-cuts-not-right-now/?src=news

 

              Credit spreads still a plus.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/credit-market-outlook-10/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              An overhaul of the BLS is needed.

  https://edgyoptimist.substack.com/p/the-scandal-is-whats-legal?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2450694&post_id=171279432&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

 

Here is a contrary view on the national debt (higher) and interest rates (lower). I don’t buy it. The reason: his assumption about taxation.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/08/19/julian_simon_redux_treasury_rates_across_the_curve_are_going_down_1129594.html

 

              Why poverty programs fail.

              (1) Cash Transfers Fail? - by Arnold Kling - In My Tribe

 

            Inflation

 

              A second wave of inflation coming?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/second-wave-inflation-coming

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The lunacy of it all.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-spend-100bn-it-doesnt-have-buy-weapons-america-it-doesnt-have-arm-soldiers

 

     Investing

 

            Update on expected S&P earnings.

                https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/summer-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future.html

           

            The latest from Howard Marks.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/19/calculus-of-value

 

            Risk appetite remains resilient for global strategies.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-appetite-stays-resilient-for-global-strategies/#more-24468

 

            Why is the yield curve steepening?

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/why-is-the-yield-curve-steepening/

 

            Hyper gambling eats the world.

            https://oldcoinbad.com/p/long-degeneracy

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--The historical muddied pciture of PPI versus CPI

 

The Morning Call

 

8/19/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/quant-carnage-continues-rate-cut-odds-leak-lower-j-hole-looms

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Calm before the storm?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/calm-storm-vol-bargains-vvix-screams-seasonality-looms

 

            Retail chasing, pros fading.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/retail-chasing-pros-fading-crypto-wobbles-edge-hedge

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-consensus-positions-heightened-top-goldman-trader-says-hedge

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-market-intel-desk-remains-tactically-bullish-heres-why

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

July housing starts rose 5.2% versus expectations of -2.2%; building permits were down 2.8% versus -0.2%.

 

The August builder confidence index was reported at 32 versus consensus of 34.

                                                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-august-2025

 

                        International

 

The June EU trade balance was +E7.0 billion versus projections of +E14.7 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Manufacturing is returning to the US.

                          https://townhall.com/tipsheet/scott-mcclallen/2025/08/17/stl-federal-reserve-us-manufacturing-is-recovering-n2661965

                       

                          Slowdown in global trade is coming.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/global-trade-slowdown-coming/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Hints of inflation complicate the next FOMC policy decision.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/hints-of-rising-inflation-complicate-feds-next-policy-meeting/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The EU is skating on thin ice.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/road-hyperstate-eu-commission-circumvents-financing-rules

 

            Inflation

 

              Is PPI predictive of CPI?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/ppi-cpi

           

              The historical muddied picture of PPI versus CPI.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/the-muddied-historical-picture-of-ppi-vs-cpi?post=516079

 

              Inflationary questions.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/18/questions-inflationary

 

     Investing

 

            What is the bottom line?

            https://www.tker.co/p/what-is-bottom-line-for-stock-market

 

            A much needed sector rotation or an early warning signal?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/a-much-needed-rotation-or-a-warning-sign?post=516078

 

            Gold as a strategic asset allocation.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/gold-is-shiny-enough-for-a-strategic-portfolio-allocation/

 

            The Market is pornographically overvalued.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/your-perfunctory-reminder-markets-are-pornographically-overvalued

 

            Insider selling reveals fallacy of stock buyback thesis.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/18/selling-reveals-fallacy-buyback-theory

 

                Foreigners aren’t following the dollar is bad script.

            Foreign Investors Aren't Following The Dollar-Is-Bad Script

 

                A primer on gold from Goldman Sachs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/you-cant-pump-it-you-can-bid-it-out-someones-hands-goldman-unveils-its-most

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot Non-GAAP EPS of $4.68 misses by $0.01, revenue of $45.28B in-line

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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