The Morning Call--Inflation is heating up again

 

The Morning Call

 

2/28/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-dollar-spike-momo-meltdown-aint-over-yet

 

            More.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-dollar-spike-momo-meltdown-aint-over-yet

 

            Fear running high.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fear-running-high-0

 

            Tech carnage.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tech-carnage-make-or-break

 

            Current Elliott Wave analysis.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/elliott-wave-analysis-sp-500-in-flat-or-triangle-keep-an-eye-on-5880-and-5784-supports?post=484287

 

            Bitcoin bloodbath.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-bloodbath-200-day-support-shattered

 

    Fundamental

 

            The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          January pending home sales dropped 4.6% versus consensus of -1.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/27/pending-home-sales-sink-all-time-low-january-2025

 

January personal income was up 0.9% versus projections of +0.3%; January personal spending declined 0.2% versus +0.1%.

 

                          The January PCE price index was +0.3%, in line.

 

The February Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was -13 versus expectations of -3.

 

                        International

 

January Japanese (preliminary) industrial production was down 1.1% versus predictions of -1.0%; January (preliminary) retail sales were up 0.5% versus +0.3%; January YoY housing starts fell 4.6% versus -2.6%; January YoY construction orders were up 12.2% versus -2.6%.

 

January German retail sales rose 0.2% versus estimates of 0.0%; the February unemployment rate was 6.2%, in line; February CPI was +0.4%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          New home sales and prices continue to fall.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/us-new-home-market-continues-shrinking.html

 

                          Demand for electricity takes off.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/27/demand-for-electricity-takes-off-us-power-generation-by-source-in-2024-natural-gas-coal-nuclear-wind-hydro-solar-geothermal-biomass-petroleum/

 

                         Thursday in the economic charts.

                         https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-26th-2025/

 

How long can sentiment stay bad and the economic numbers stay good?

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/sentiment-bad-hard-data-good-how-long-can-it-continue/

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump has said he is working on a trade deal with the UK and suggested Britain could escape tariffs if the country secured one, but the allies failed to agree on US security guarantees for Ukraine.

 

Trump said on Truth that they are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding bill. 

 

The Treasury’s cash balance plummeted to $569 billion, the lowest since September 2023, as it navigates the debt-ceiling impasse by reducing bill auctions. Meanwhile, overnight repo rates climbed.

 

Mexico will extradite drug criminals to the US in a bid to avoid Trump’s tariffs.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Waste of the day.

              https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2025/02/25/waste_of_the_day_inflation_reduction_act_is_over_budget_and_underperforming_1093695.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is heating up again.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-27/what-to-know-about-rising-us-inflation-and-your-consumer-prices?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                           Inflation adjusted housing prices.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-10.html

 

            Recession

 

              Homebuilders have the most speculative unsold inventory since 2008.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/homebuilders-have-most-speculative-unsold-inventory-since-may-of-2008?post=484505

 

              Is the unemployment rate about to rise?

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-end-of-steady-as-she-goes-in.html

 

The above analyst thinks DOGE is starting to impact the number; this analyst doesn’t.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/initial-unemployment-claims-spike-by-22000-not-doge-related/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump tariffs spur major reaction in Canada.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-27/canadian-shoppers-ditch-american-products-as-tariff-threat-looms?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Geopolitics

 

              Confusion reigns supreme.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-impossible-summarize-everything-happening

 

    Investing

 

            Ministagflation will end with a shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/mini-stagflation-will-end-financial-shock

 

            Growth scare and tariffs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-scare-tariffs-troubling-narrative-continues-brewing

 

            Update on Q4 S&P earnings.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q4-thursday-feb-27?post=484504

 

            The bitcoin slump steepens.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c5a58f35-1c10-4a2f-90f0-65e8b27427ce

 

            Thoughts from Josh Brown.

            https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/give-it-a-minute

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

EOG Resources press release (NYSE:EOG): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.74 beats by $0.17

Revenue of $5.59B (-12.1% Y/Y) misses by $360M.

 

 

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) declares $0.975/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $1.02/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--The inconsistency of Trump's policies on tariffs and the dollar

 

The Morning Call

 

2/27/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/trump-tariff-twist-trounces-dead-cat-bounce-crypto-carnage-continues-yield-curve-re

 

            Nvidia: the aftermath.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/life-after-nvda-print

           

            DJIA winning and losing streaks.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/winning-and-losing-streaks-for-dow.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 242,000 versus 221,000.

 

Q4 (2^nd estimate) GDP sales growth was 3.2%, in line; real consumer spending was up 4.2%, also in line; PCE prices were up 2.4% versus +2.3%; core PCE prices were up 2.7% versus 2.5%.

                         

January new home sales fell 10.5% versus forecasts of down 2.6%; building permits were off 0.6% versus +0.1%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/more-unwelcome-news-in-new-house-prices.html

 

January durable goods orders rose 3.1% versus expectations of +2.0%; ex transportation, they were flat versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

                          January UK auto production was down 17.7% versus estimates of -20.0%.

 

February EU economic sentiment came in at 96.5 versus projections of 96.0; industrial sentiment was -11.4 versus -12.0; services sentiment was 6.2 versus 6.8; consumer confidence was 13.6, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Two measures of consumer attitudes.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/26/two-measures-of-consumer-attitudes-february-2025

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-headed-for-72000-these-metrics-could-hint-so?post=484307

 

            Overnight News

 

Canadian officials are undertaking a “full court press” in Washington this week to avert 25% tariffs on most of the nation’s goods, a minister said.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Is the yield curve about to re-invert?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/hello-nversion-my-old-friend

 

              Though longer term, it appears that Fed policy would favor higher long-term rates.

 https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/25/future-of-the-feds-balance-sheet-feds-logan-on-how-assets-might-shift-from-longer-term-to-short-term-t-bills-repos-and-loans-after-qt-ends/

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              House republicans advance GOP budget.

              https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/johnson-and-trump-pull-off-surprising-win-to-advance-gop-agenda-after-vote-whiplash-in-the-house/ar-AA1zMiWu

 

              CFPB slush fund.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/5151136-federal-agency-slush-fund/

 

              Using blockchain technology to rein in the defense department.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-confront-dod-checkbook

 

            Inflation

 

              Ten forces pushing inflation higher.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/us-inflation-outlook/

 

              Global segmentation is inflationary.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/from-globalization-to-segmentation/

 

            Tariffs

 

              The inconsistency of Trump’s policies on the dollar and tariffs.

              https://www.barrons.com/articles/weak-dollar-trump-vance-reserve-currency-6851b258?st=e6mckE

           

              Copper now on Trump’s tariff hit list.

              Trump Announces Inquiry That Could Lead to Tariffs on Copper - The New York Times

 

              New Trump crackdown on China just beginning.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-china-crackdown.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine can forget about NATO.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-can-forget-about-nato-says-trump-thats-probably-reason-why-whole-thing-started

 

              A different take on the proposed US/Ukraine minerals agreement.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/trump-will-end-his-option-of-walking-away-from-project-ukraine-with-his-minerals-deal.html

 

    Investing

 

            Markets rethinking prospects for Trump2.0.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/are-markets-rethinking-the-prospects-for-trump-2-0/#more-23616

 

            Bitcoin headed to 72,000?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-headed-for-72000-these-metrics-could-hint-so?post=484307

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The weird new putting technique.

            https://www.wsj.com/sports/golf/aimpoint-putting-pga-tour-8868484c

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

 

The Morning Call

 

2/26/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/midst-negative-feedback-loop-bonds-bid-retail-rout-wrecks-everything-else

 

            How much more downside?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-inning-are-we-goldman-sees-more-pain-come-momo-unwind

 

            Nearing a short term low.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/a-low-in-the-market-is-near?post=483934

           

            So far in 2025, Fridays are the new Mondays.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-fridays-are-new-mondays

 

            Gold at overbought level, but…..

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-prices-surge-to-new-highs-despite-overbought?post=484053

 

            And silver sentiment soars.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/bitcoin-fades-gold-sees-huge-etf-inflows-silver-sentiment-soars

 

            Bitcoin is retesting important level.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-once-again-arrives-at-this-bear-bull-boundary-will-a-break-happen?post=484102

 

            How correlated is crypto to the Market?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worried-about-crypto-and-its-connection-markets

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.2% while purchase applications were flat.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The December Case Shiller home price index fell 0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-december-2024

 

                                                   More details.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/unwelcome-news-for-homebuyers-and-cpi.html

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at 6 versus projections of -3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-improved-february-2025

 

February consumer confidence was reported at 98.3 versus estimates of 102.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/consumer-confidence-dropped-sharply-february-2025

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators were 108.3 versus predictions of 108.9.

 

The March German consumer confidence index was -24.7 versus forecasts of -21.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-24th-2025/

 

                          Ten charts on consumer confidence and jobs.

                          In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

 

                          One week does not a trend make.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-tune-out-the-noise/?src=news

 

                          Update on economic policy uncertainty.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/epu-today-655

 

            Overnight News

 

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday instructing the Department of Commerce to investigate whether to impose tariffs on copper and derivative products, key industrial materials, in order to protect national security. This sets the stage for more trade friction with Canada and Mexico, as well as Chile and Peru.

 

Ukraine and Washington have struck a minerals rights deal, and Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington later in the week for a signing ceremony w/Trump.

 

House Republicans approved a budget framework for President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda Tuesday — a major victory for Speaker Mike Johnson who worked with Trump and fellow leaders in a chaotic last-ditch effort to win over naysayers within the GOP ranks.

 

US President Trump said will begin a program to sell 'Trump gold cards' for USD 5mln for foreigners who want to come to the US and create jobs with the sale of gold cards to start in about two weeks.

 

The US House Ways and Means Committee has reportedly had discussions about options like ratcheting up taxes on public companies’ stock buybacks or adjusting limits on deducting executive pay, according to sources cited by Punchbowl. "Proposals such as raising endowment taxes on universities and significant cuts to clean energy tax credits are being viewed as even more likely".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Interpreting Trump policies is not easy for the Fed.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/politics-and-policy-clouds-path-ahead-for-fed/

 

              The ECB is sounding like our Fed (i.e., one the one hand, on the other hand).

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-can-keep-cutting-rates-as-inflation-approaches-target-bundesbanks-nagel-says-359fe7c5?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Bank of Korea cuts rates.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-korea-cuts-rate-lowers-growth-forecast-4b846621?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Could Trump policies break the dollar/stock market?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/could-mar-lago-accord-break-stocks-market

 

            The Financial System

 

              The number of troubled banks decreased in Q4.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/fdic-number-of-problem-banks-decreased.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs won’t bring a golden age to America.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/02/25/tariffs_wont_create_the_golden_age_of_america_1093222.html

 

                Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine agrees to mineral deal with US.

              https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6

 

                  A new detente?

             https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-us-diplomatic-choreography-un-shows-their-commitment-new-detente

               

 

      Investing

 

            No one likes uncertainty.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-likes-uncertainty-least-all-stock-market

 

            The pace of disruption.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/it-sneaks-up-on-you...-then-explodes/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP743&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Changes in corporate governance.

            https://www.ft.com/content/85eccee4-3890-4c25-bd89-eb522b95efb9

 

            The best and worst years of the S&P 500.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-best-and-worst-years-of-s-500.html

 

            Best trading practices.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-are-your-best-trading-practices.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/02/quotation-of-the-day-4931.html

           

                        The rich getting richer.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-top-10/

 

            Kyle Bass on Chinese ownership of US land.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kyle-bass-sounds-alarm-over-chinas-insane-battlefield-asymmetries-us-land-ownership

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.