The Morning Call---Pay attention to the liquidity indicators

The Morning Call

 

1/17/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-oil-gold-all-down-waller-wrecks-rate-cut-party

           

            Latest thoughts from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-believes-fed-put-real-again-goldman-trader-warns-fear-rotation-tail-risks-remain

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 10.4% while purchase applications were up 9.0%.

                         

December retail sales were up 0.6% versus estimates of +0.4%; ex autos, they were up 0.4% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-sales-surged-2023-led-autos-food-services-gas-station-sales-slumped

                                                  

                        International

 

Q4 YoY Chinese GDP rose 5.2% versus expectations of +5.3%; December YoY industrial production was up 6.8% versus 6.6%; December YoY retail sales were up 7.4% versus 8.0%; the December unemployment rate was 5.1% versus 5.0%.

 

December UK CPI was 0.4% versus predictions of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.6% versus +0.4%.

 

December EU CPI was +0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

               

             The Fed

 

                This analyst thinks that six rate cuts in 2024 is a ‘pipedream’.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/davos-2024-rogoff-sees-six-fed-rate-cuts-as-pipedream-if-economy-holds-up?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

                               

                                And this FOMC member agrees.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-tumble-after-feds-waller-sends-rate-cut-odds-reeling

 

                So does the ECB and BOE.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-cut-hopes-plunge-after-uk-inflation-lagarde-misfire-waller-walkback

 

 

But no one addresses the reason why the easing move could come sooner rather than later.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-market-gunning-early-fed-rate-cut

 

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Never ending profligacy: Congress considering new tax cuts.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-set-another-cash-140000830.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC1V8-m267svNrXbZ6ee2E6mQkGyrA4Q7dojYgQqnrqHO9YDLkSWNf-ah_BeStyoYy33b2EFYs6k_makDGOBihGtkISncoGbfaW7bMKDTOgbu1ocoWa-qnxp4sxIwERT1BYdrk6psN6yhaDfNunalirEL1l7JTt1qYhqj7QmkA4v

 

            Recession

 

              Office properties drove up commercial real estate delinquency rates in Q4.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/mba-office-properties-drove-increase-in.html

 

              Light vehicle sales increased in 2023.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/annual-light-vehicle-sales-increase-12.html

 

            Civil Strife

 

              Just how alienated is the ruling class?

              https://brownstone.org/articles/just-how-alienated-are-our-masters-and-commanders/

 

            China

 

              China considering more stimulus.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/china-weighs-more-stimulus-with-139-billion-of-special-bonds?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              China expected to ramp up pressure on Taiwan following election.

              https://www.axios.com/2024/01/14/china-taiwan-elections-military-political-biden

 

    Bottom line

 

            Inflation data suggests great earnings are coming.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/01/why-the-new-inflation-data-implies-fabulous-earnings-are-coming/

 

            An interview with David Rosenberg.

            https://themarket.ch/interview/now-is-a-good-time-to-take-profits-and-thank-your-lucky-stars-ld.10391

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

                   Quote of the day.

                   https://cafehayek.com/2024/01/quotation-of-the-day-4513.html

 

 

                                     Wednesday morning humor.

                  https://babylonbee.com/news/8-changes-to-air-travel-made-by-the-all-female-flight-crew

 

                  This from my favorite liberal’s website: the January 6^th gallows.

                  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/the-famous-gallows-of-january-6-who-what-where-when-and-why.html

                                                                                                                        

                  A look back at Belichick’s reign.

                  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/11/24029361/bill-belichick-out-new-england-patriots-legacy-robert-kraft-tom-brady

 

 

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