The Morning Call--Falling inflation raises new risks for Fed

 

The Morning Call

 

1/30/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bomds-bullion-bitcoin-all-rally-ahead-catalyst-heavy-week

 

            Yields tumble after Treasury lowers borrowing estimates.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-tumble-futures-soar-after-treasury-unexpectedly-slashes-borrowing-estimates

 

            Tracking the bounce in interest rates.

            https://allstarcharts.com/tracking-the-bounce-in-interest-rates/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                            

The January Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -27.4 versus estimates of -23.0.

                             https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/29/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-january

                                                        

                        International

 

                          December Japanese unemployment was 2.5%, in line.

 

Q4 German flash GDP growth was -0.3%, in line; Q4 EU flash GDP growth was 0.0% versus -0.1%.

 

The January EU economic sentiment index was 96.2 versus forecasts of 96.1; the January industrial sentiment index was -9.4 versus -8.7; the January services sentiment index was +8.8 versus +5.5; the consumer confidence index was -16.1, in line.

 

                        Other

                             

                              A six pack of charts providing additional insight to the US economy.

                              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/01/a-quick-chart-six-pack.html

 

                              Mortgage rates are expected to continue to fall.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-29/mortgage-rates-in-us-to-decline-to-5-5-in-2024-survey-shows?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Fed

 

              A little easing now could help avoid a lot of easing later.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-easing-timing-4ec5768d?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              From the Fed whisperer: Falling inflation raises new risks for Fed.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/plummeting-inflation-raises-new-risk-for-fed-rising-real-interest-rates-fd2a4f37

 

              The era of an independent Fed is drawing to a close.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-independence-was-nice-while-it-lasted

 

            Inflation

 

              Is inflation dead?

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/01/26/weekend-reading-is-inflation-dead-2/

 

Recession

  Businesses and consumers are borrowing again.

  https://www.wsj.com/finance/credit-borrowing-business-loans-charts-0c99e080?mod=hp_lead_pos5

 

            War in the Middle East

 

              The gathering storm clouds.

              https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/spiral-of-vengeance-the-gathering-storm-clouds-in-the-middle-east-a-a18a9bc3-ff55-4e8c-96a0-a7d2f4f79a65

 

              The implications of the Tower 22 strike in Jordan.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/the-tower-22-strike-in-jordan-triggers-us-israel-into-all-front-war-the-arabs-and-iran-are-ready-the-russians-too.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            How to consistently lose money.

            Carl Richards and Josh Brown on the Behavior Gap (downtownjoshbrown.com)

 

            Crypto is going mainstream which means that it is over.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-26/bitcoin-etf-crypto-is-going-mainstream-which-means-it-s-over?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Blue chip highflyers and dogs.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/blue-chip-high-fliers-and-dogs

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

        

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.47 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $24.9B (-7.8% Y/Y) misses by $510M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.63/share quarterly dividend, 0.6% increase from prior dividend of $1.62.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How to spot a liar.

            https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/24/how-to-spot-a-liar-10-essential-tells-from-random-laughter-to-copycat-gestures

 

Violent crime in the US was down in 2023.

https://jasher.substack.com/p/crime-in-2023-murder-plummeted-violent

 

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