The Morning Call--The global economy is not out of the woods yet

 

The Morning Call

 

1/5/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldilocks-gored-growth-gains-bitcoin-bounces-rate-cut-hopes-hammered

 

            What will it take to get bearish?

            https://allstarcharts.com/what-will-it-take-to-get-bearish/

 

            Any clues for the rest of the year in the first week’s performance?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/magnificent-sevens-january-start-gives-clues-markets-year

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

The final December services PMI was 50.9 versus consensus of 51.0; the final composite PMI was 51.4 versus 51.3.

                        https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/04/s-p-global-services-pmi-expansion-picks-up-in-december

 

December nonfarm payrolls rose by 216,000 jobs versus projections of 170,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jobs-shocker-december-payrolls-unexpectedly-surge-unemployment-rate-slides-wages-jump

 

                        International

 

                          November German retail sales fell 2.5% versus forecasts of -0.1%.

 

The final December Japanese services PMI was 51.5 versus estimates of 52.0; the final December composite PMI was 50.0 versus 50.4; December consumer confidence was 37.2 versus 36.0.

 

The December EU construction PMI was 43.6 versus expectations of 44.0; the December German construction PMI was 37.0 versus 38.0; the December UK construction PMI was 46.8 versus 46.0.

 

The December EU flash CPI was up 2.9% versus consensus of up 3.0%; the core CPI was 3.4%, in line; the PPI was -0.3% versus -0.1%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-rate-cut-odds-tumble-eu-inflation-re-accelerates-december

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  How the markets are now pricing the odds of a rate cut.

  https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-and-fed-minutes-see-path-for-rate-cuts-in-2024/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The rule of the unelected.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynecrews/2024/01/03/rule-of-the-unelected-revisiting-the-unconstitutionality-index/?sh=192712545760

 

                        Recession

 

              The global economy is not out of the woods yet.

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-economic-outlook-for-2024-growing-uncertainty-by-kenneth-rogoff-2024-01?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote&

 

    Auto sales bounced back in 2023.

   https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/u-s-auto-sales-bounced-back-in-2023-ecd389dd?mod=business_lead_pos4

 

     The latest Q4 nowcast.

   https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

                        Geopolitics

 

              You may not care about war but………

              https://www.econlib.org/you-may-not-care-about-war/

 

                        2024

 

              What happens after a good year in the stock market?

              https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/01/what-comes-after-a-good-year-in-the-stock-market/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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