Friday, January 12, 2024

The Morning Call--Retail Federation sees slower consumer spending growth in 2024

 

The Morning Call

 

1/12/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hot-flation-hammers-hope-stocks-gold-drop-yield-curve-bull-steepens-crypto-rips

 

            Goldman’s flow guru is bullish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dip-alpha-goldmans-flow-guru-bullish-earnings-bar-low-buyback-blackout-ends-gamma

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 202,000 versus consensus of 210,00.

 

December CPI came in at +0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.3%, in line.

 

December PPI fell 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.1%; core PPI was 0.0% versus +0.2%,

 

The December budget deficit was $129 billion versus estimates of $65.2 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-budget-deficit-soars-50-crushing-estimates-fiscal-collapse-under-biden-accelerates

                                                                        

                        International

                

November Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 107 versus projections of 109.

 

November UK GDP grew 0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%; November industrial production was up 0.3%, in line; the November trade balance was L-1.4 billion versus L-4.0 billion; November YoY construction output was up 0.9% versus up 1.3%.

 

December Chinese CPI was up 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%; December YoY PPI was -2.7% versus -2.6%; the December trade balance was $79.3 billion versus $74.7 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

More on the potential liquidity problem in the financial system and its impact on Fed policy.

              https://www.ft.com/content/d4012025-28d5-40bd-b525-9594dc970569

 

            Inflation

 

              The impact of Owner’s Equivalent Rent on the latest CPI number (see above).

              https://ritholtz.com/2024/01/cpi-increase-is-based-on-bad-shelter-data/

 

            Recession

 

              Retail Federation economist sees slower consumer spending growth in 2024.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/consumer-spending-growth-will-slow-in-2024-nrf-chief-economist-says-.html

               

              Record debt negatively impacts growth in 60% of the global economy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/60-global-economy-lost-decade-due-record-debt

 

            Geopolitics

 

              An overview of this year’s numerous elections worldwide.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-global-election-watch-on-economic-market-issues/?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            War in the Middle East

 

              Houthi rebels stepped up attacks in Red Sea.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blinken-admits-iran-behind-biggest-attack-targeting-us-ships-theres-no-plan

 

    Bottom line

 

            Junk bonds crushing Treasuries.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/junk-bonds-crushing-long-term-treasuries

 

                Are we all becoming economic snowflakes?

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/junk-bonds-crushing-long-term-treasuries

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

                      

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.66 beats by $0.82.

Revenue of $4.63B (+6.7% Y/Y) in-line.

 

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.10/share quarterly dividend2% increase from prior dividend of $5.00.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why finite resources won’t limit growth (must read).

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/of-course-you-can-have-infinite-growth-on-a-finite-planet

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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