The Morning Call
1/31/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yields-jolted-higher-stocks-lower-ahead-fedtreasury
Are we nearing a
correction?
https://allstarcharts.com/when-does-this-bull-market-end/
Overshoots.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/overshoots-front-running-and-decoupling
JP Morgan warns today’s
market similar to Dot com peak.
Counterpoint: It
is not just tech that is driving this market.
https://allstarcharts.com/only-tech-driving-this-market/
Inverse panic?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/are-we-skipping-fomo-and-going-straight-inverse-panic
Despite geopolitical
threats, stocks still lean toward risk-on.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/despite-geopolitical-threats-markets-still-lean-into-risk-on/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications fell 7.2% while purchase
applications were down 11.4%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
slower than in the prior week.
The November Case
Shiller home price index fell 0.2% versus expectations of +0.2%.
December job
openings (JOLTS) totaled 9.03 million versus predictions of 8.87 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/job-openings-jolts-december-2023
The January
consumer confidence index came in at 114.8 versus consensus of 115.0.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/30/consumer-confidence-hits-two-year-high
The January ADP
private payroll report showed a total of 107,000 new jobs versus estimates of
145,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-job-gains-slowing
International
December Japanese
preliminary industrial production was up 1.8% versus forecasts of +2.5%; December
retail sales declined 2.9% versus +0.5%; the January consumer confidence index
was 38.0 versus 37.7; January YoY housing starts were -4.0% versus -6.2%; the
January YoY construction orders were up 0.4% versus +1.1%.
December German retail
sales were down 1.6% versus projections of up 0.7%; the January unemployment
rate was 5.8% versus 5.9%; January CPI was -0.2% versus -0.1%.
The January
Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line; the January nonmanufacturing PMI
was 50.7 versus 50.6; the January composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.1.
The
Fed
The economy is improving not because of the
Fed but in spite of it.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/01/28/weekly-market-pulse-surprises/
Why cut rates in an economy this strong?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html
The Fed is pushing banks to utilize the
discount window for liquidity needs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-prepares-bank-crisis-while-telling-americans-economy-strong
Fiscal
Policy
The usurpation of resources.
Want more production (Mr. Trump), support
free trade.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/01/want-more-production-support-free-trade.html
Senate republicans cut deal with Biden over immigration/Ukraine
funding.
Recession
By this measure, the probability of a
recession has increased.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/probability-of-us-recession-resurges-to.html
IMF lifts
global growth outlook for 2024.
Eurozone economy flatlines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/eurozone-economy-gdp.html
War
in the Middle East
Will Israel attack Lebanon?
Geopolitics
The argument for
aiding Ukraine: I disagree (1) the well documented wide spread corruption, i.e.
stealing US funds, belies the assertion that the Ukrainians are helping
themselves [yes, to our money] and (2) part of the deal Gorbachev made with
Bush was that in exchange for dismantling the Soviet empire, the US/NATO would
not push its borders further east, which it clearly reneged on. Russia is attempting to put a stop to it. However,
I include this for perspective.
China
Chinas’ real-estate problems have not touched
bottom.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/china-evergrande-real-estate.html
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
T.
Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW)
declares $1.24/share quarterly dividend, 1.6% increase from prior
dividend of $1.22.
Microsoft press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q2 GAAP
EPS of $2.93 beats by $0.16.
Revenue
of $62.02B (+17.7% Y/Y) beats by $890M.
Mastercard press release (NYSE:MA): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$3.18 beats by
$0.10.
Revenue
of $6.5B (+13% Y/Y) beats by
$20M.
What
I am reading today
Public
school bloat.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/01/the-daily-chart-public-school-bloat-3.php
Wednesday morning
humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/10-signs-youre-poor-in-a-capitalist-country
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