The Morning Call--The soft landing that the Fed can't engineer

 

The Morning Call

 

1/9/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-big-tech-burst-higher-amid-bloodbath-boeing-black-gold

 

Santa was a no-show.

https://allstarcharts.com/santa-was-a-no-show/

 

            The dollar matters to stock investors.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/dollar-fx-stock-investors-f948579f?st=tjmf809umdl9man&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November consumer credit grew $23.7 billion versus estimates of +$9.0 billion.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-credit-shocker-november-debt-soars-after-second-biggest-surge-credit-card-debt

 

The November trade balance was -$63.2 billion versus forecasts of -$65.0 billion.

 

 

The December small business optimism index came in at 91.9 versus      predictions of 90.7.

                                                      

                        International

 

November Japanese household spending fell 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%; December YoY CPI was 2.4% versus 2.5%; YoY core CPI was 2.1%, in line.

 

November German industrial production declined 0.7% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

The November EU unemployment rate was 6.4% versus forecasts of 6.5%.

 

                        Other

 

 Apartment vacancy rate increased in Q4; office vacancy in ‘uncharted    territory’.

                        https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/moodys-apartment-vacancy-rate-increased.html

 

            The Fed

 

              A preview of global central banks expected monetary policy in 2024.

             https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-08/fed-pivot-will-dominate-year-of-rate-cuts-in-turn-of-global-cycle?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Is quantitative tightening about to end?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-logan-says-quiet-part-out-loud

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              $34 trillion and rising.

              https://www.aier.org/article/34-trillion-and-climbing/

 

            Inflation

 

              Wholesale used car prices went down in December.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-05.html

 

  Inflation expectations tumbled in latest NY Fed survey.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-expectations-tumble-lowest-jan-2021-do-wage-and-spending-growth-latest-ny-fed

 

Recession

 

  The soft landing that the Fed can’t engineer.

  https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2024/01/07/claudia-sahm-yearns-for-a-soft-landing-that-the-fed-cant-engineer/?sh=4991f17b6213

                       

  The Goldilocks economy.

  https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-goldilocks-economy/

 

  The nation’s top economists ae short term happy, long term glum.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/nations-top-economists-are-short-term-happy-long-term-glum-f3019634?mod=economy_lead_story

 

The Financial System

 

  An interview with Dick Bove.

  https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2cnx38teolr0y0nmiv400/corner-office/dick-bove-inability-to-take-risk-is-crippling-ability-of-banks-to-compete

 

    Bottom line

 

            Portfolio return expectations are too high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/01/08/portfolio-return-investors-high-lance-roberts

 

Now comes earnings season.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/earnings-reports-stock-rally-2024-10e24ece?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

            The bear argument.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/logical-bullish-view-us-stocks-flawed

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Tuesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/10-most-shocking-revelations-from-the-epstein-documents

 

Trapped in Medicare Advantage plans.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/older-americans-say-they-feel-trapped-in-medicare-advantage-plans.html

 

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