The Morning Call---The case for 'higher for longer'

The Morning Call

 

1/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-news-bad-news-goldilocks-reality-check-wrecks-dovish-dreams

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 187,000 versus expectations of 207,000.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

December industrial production was up 0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%; capacity utilization was 78.6% versus 78.7%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/17/the-big-four-recession-indicators-industrial-production-inches-up-in-december

 

December housing starts fell 4.3% versus forecasts of -8.3%; December building permits were up 1.9% versus +0.9%.

 

The January Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index as reported at -10.6 versus predictions of -7.0.

 

The January housing index came in at 44 versus projections of 39.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/17/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-surges-on-falling-interest-rates

 

                        International

                        

                           November Japanese industrial production fell 0.9%, in line.

                        

  November EU construction output was down 2.2% versus estimates of -1.7%.

                        

                        Other

 

                          The virtue economy is over.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-16/the-decline-of-esg-and-dei-signals-the-end-of-the-virtue-economy?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Fed

 

              More central bank push back on rate cuts.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/markets-heed-central-bank-pushback-against-aggressive-rate-cuts?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The case for ‘higher for longer.’

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/interest-rates-not-coing-down-soon-or-fast

                

  The latest Fed Beige Book report showed little change in the level of economic activity.

                 https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/feds-beige-book-little-or-no-change-in.html

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

                               

              The beginning of the end of the administrative state?

              https://issuesinsights.com/2024/01/15/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-2-trillion-administrative-state/

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on the price of a can of tomato soup.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-price-history-of-campbells-tomato.html

 

            Government Shutdown

 

              Senate clears first hurdle to avoid government shutdown.

              https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/16/senate-advances-stopgap-spending-bill-00135885

 

    Bottom line

 

            Stock/bond correlation.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/01/the-holy-grail-of-portfolio-management/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Rasputin really died.

            Poisoned, shot, or drowned? Here’s how Rasputin really died. (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

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