The Morning Call
1/4/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-bonds-stocks-suffer-biggest-rout-start-year-1999
Risk-on mood
fades.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equities-eye-january-pause-risk-mood-fades
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 202,000 versus projections of 216,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-end-2023-year-lows
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
The November job
openings (JOLTS) totaled 8.79 million versus forecasts of 8.85 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/03/job-openings-jolts-november-2023
The December ISM manufacturing
index came in at 47.4 versus predictions of 47.1.
The December ADP
private payroll reported showed an increase of 164,000 jobs versus expectations
of 115,000.
International
The final December
Japanese manufacturing PMI was 47.9 versus estimates of 47.7; the final December Chinese Caixin
services PMI was 52.9 versus 51.6; the composite PMI was 52.6 versus 51.6; the
final December German services PMI was 49.3 versus 48.4; composite PMI was 47.4
versus 46.7; the final December EU services PMI was 48.8 versus 48.1; the final
composite PMI was 47.6 versus 47.0; the final December UK services PMI was 53.4
versus 52.7; the final composite PMI was 52.1 versus 51.7.
December German CPI was up 0.1%, in line.
Other
The
Fed
Minutes from last
FOMC meeting pushed back on the ‘Fed pivot.’
The more hawkish tone of the minutes support the notion that the Fed intended
to remain ‘higher for longer.’ But then, as I have speculated, Powell suddenly
changed the narrative pointing towards easier monetary policy, most likely because
the Administration put pressure on him to take a more dovish stance which it
hoped would be a plus for reelection. Powell then caved (pivoted)---and that scenario
is not likely to change. In other words, it is still an election year and
politicians will still be politicians; so I expect a continuation of the easy
money rhetoric. Bottom line: the Fed minutes are just an inconvenience in
timing not a switch back to a tighter monetary policy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-12
Inflation
Will the good news on inflation last?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/business/economy/inflation-prices.html
Recession
Pat attention to growth not inflation.
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/with-ngdp-everything-becomes-much-clearer/
2024
Three more predictions for 2024.
Bottom line
Lessons form 2023.
https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/12/31/3-lessons-from-2023/
December dividends
by the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/dividends-by-numbers-in-december-2023.htmlv
Profit growth to
accelerate in 2024.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-profit-growth-accelerate-2024-162943630.html
Contrarian
investing.
https://ritholtz.com/2024/01/at-the-money-contrarian-investing/#more-327911
The latest from
Jeff Gundlach.
Have the Markets
gotten ahead of themselves?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasuries-send-out-early-message-caution-2024-trades
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote of the day
https://cafehayek.com/2024/01/quotation-of-the-day-4501.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment