The Morning Call---No clear risk-off signal

The Morning Call

 

1/10/24

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                   

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-big-tech-quiet-data-deluge-AC

 

            No clear risk-off signal.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/still-waiting-for-a-clear-risk-off-signal-at-2024s-start/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                          

Weekly mortgage applications were up 9.9% while purchase applications were up 6.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

November YoY Japanese average earnings rose 0.2% versus estimates of +1.5%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Time for a change in policy.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/01/economic-slowdown-on-top-of-lower.html

 

  Another possible explanation for the ‘Fed pivot’.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-navigate-feds-new-paradigm-shift

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Investors warn governments about high level of public debt.

              https://www.ft.com/content/33f85fd6-55ec-45a1-a1b6-69a845726d58

 

            Inflation

 

              New home unaffordability continues or rise.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/new-home-unaffordability-rises-despite.html

 

              The latest inflation nowcast.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/01/inflation-nowcasts-and-expectations

 

 

            The Financial System

 

              Odds of US banks failure rise.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/odds-of-us-bank-failures-rise-with-office-space-loan-losses-fed-interest-rate-mismanagement.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Bill Gross says the long Treasury overvalued.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-09/gross-casts-shade-on-treasuries-sees-10-year-overvalued-at-4?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

Can value stocks make a comeback?

https://www.ft.com/content/ab4297e8-7e99-443b-b839-e55fbf8914db

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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