The Morning Call---More disinflation, no recession

 

The Morning Call

 

1/26/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-black-gold-bid-stocks-skid-no-landing-narrative-gores-goldilocks

 

            Three divergences to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-divergences-we-are-watching

 

            Volatility is currently mispriced.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ahead-feb-2-fireworks-goldman-spots-phenomenon-has-never-occured

 

            Six things to know about all-time highs.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/six-things-to-know-about-all-time-highs/

 

    Fundamental

 

          Headlines

 

                        US

                       

                          December new home sales rose 8.0%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/25/new-home-sales-rebound-in-december

 

  The December PCE price index was reported at +.2%, in line; the core PCE price index was +0.2%, also in line.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/savings-rate-slumps-feds-favorite-inflation-signal-hits-2-handle

 

  December personal income was up 0.3%, in line; December personal spending was up 0.7% versus +0.4%.

 

 The January Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -17 versus consensus of -21.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/25/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity-declined-january-2024

 

                        International

 

The November Japanese leading economic indicators were 107.6 versus projections of 107.7; the January YoY CPI was +1.6% versus +2.2%; the YoY core CPI was +1.6% versus +1.9%; the core YoY CPI, ex food and energy was +2.2% versus +2.5%.

 

January UK consumer confidence was -19 versus estimates of -21; February German consumer confidence was -29.7 versus -24.5.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed risks getting caught up in politics.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-risks-getting-caught-up-in-politics-whatever-it-does-6d33c941?mod=economy_lead_pos2

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The problem isn’t the process; it is the politicians.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4426637-the-budget-process-isnt-broken-the-problem-is-politics/

 

  We now have the biggest government in the history of the world.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-has-biggest-govt-history-world-very-wide-margin

 

  Yesterday’s GDP number was great; but there is one problem.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gdp-number-was-great-there-just-one-huge-problem

 

Recession

 

  More disinflation, no recession. (must read)

  https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/01/more-disinflation-no-recession-us-king.html

 

China

 

  The $6 trillion stock wipeout spells big problems for Xi.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-25/can-xi-jinping-reverse-china-s-6-trillion-stock-market-crisis?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line

 

            Desperate times lead to predictable results.

            https://allstarcharts.com/desperate-times-lead-to-predictable-results/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The Misery Index and the 2024 election.

            https://ritholtz.com/2024/01/misery-index-2024-election/

 

            Friday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/amy-coney-barrett-says-ruling-for-open-border-has-nothing-to-do-with-landscaping-work-she-needs-done-this-summer

 

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