The Morning Call---Living with higher interest rates

The Morning Call

 

1/3/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2024-starts-bitcoin-breakout-crude-collapse-mega-cap-meltdown

 

            The big long.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-long

 

            Paying up for downside protection.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/hunting-skew

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly mortgage applications fell 10.7% while purchase   applications were down 7.6%.

 

                          November construction spending rose 0.4% versus expectations of +0.6%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/01/construction-spending-increased-04-in.html

 

                          The December manufacturing PMI was 47.9 versus consensus of 48.2.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/02/s-p-global-us-manufacturing-pmitm-sharper-decline-in-december

 

                         International                  

 

                          The December German unemployment rate was 5.9%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Reverse repos plummet.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reverse-repo-plummets-314-billion-first-massive-liquidity-injection-2024

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Congrats to the thieves and cheaters in our ruling class.

  https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/01/congrats-to-this-very-bipartisan-group.html

 

  The national debt hits $34 trillion.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-debt-hits-record-34001-trillion

 

Recession

 

  The economic graph of 2023.

  https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-economic-graph-of-year-for-2023.html

 

  Living with higher interest rates.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/investors-2024-is-year-transition-new-economic-order-2024-01-02/

 

Government Shutdown

 

  Here we go again.

  https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4372512-government-funding-fight-scenarios/

 

China

 

  Xi admits Chinese economy is struggling.

  https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/01/economy/xi-jinping-new-year-address-economy-intl-hnk/index.html

 

The Dollar

 

              The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/01/status-of-us-dollar-as-global-reserve-currency-and-usd-exchange-rates-long-slow-uneven-decline-continues.html

                 

 

 

                        Outlook for 2024

 

              A useless (hopeless) exercise.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-investment-outlooks/?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

                                      

              Supply chain problems still exist.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-disruptions-geopolitics-hang-over-2024-supply-chains-6fca8f1e?mod=business_lead_pos2

 

 

               Three predictions for 2024.

              https://allstarcharts.com/my-3-predictions-for-2024/

               

              Resolutions for 2024.

              January Stats & New Year Investing Resolutions For 2024 - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

 

    Bottom line

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/02/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/the-biden-administrations-top-10-accomplishments-of-2023

 

            The last exercise column you ever need to read.

            https://slate.com/technology/2023/12/last-exercise-column-you-ever-need.html

 

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