The Morning Call
11/16/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-rips-bonds-stocks-sink-fci-doom-loop-looms
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless
claims totaled 231,000 versus expectations of 220.000.
October PPI was
down 0.5% versus projections of +0.1%; core PPI was flat versus +0.3%.
October retail
sales fell 0.1% versus forecasts of -0.3%; ex autos, they were up 0.1% versus
0.0%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/15/retail-sales-fall-october-2023
The November NY
Fed manufacturing index came in at +9.1 versus estimates of -2.8.
The November
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at -5.9 versus consensus of
-9.0.
International
September Japanese
machinery orders were up 1.4% versus predictions of +0.9%; the October trade
balance was Y-662.5 billion versus Y-735.7 billion.
Other
Architectural billings
continue to decline.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/aia-continuing-decline-in-architecture.html
The
Fed
Credit where credit is due.
https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/14/can-the-fed-finally-declare-victory/
Fiscal
Policy
This author’s tone
is a bit too fatalistic and his conclusion extremely dire; but he frames the
problem correctly and solving it will be painful. Just not as bad as he forecasts.
Recession
Survey of Professional Forecasters outlook for
GDP and interest rates.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/11/gdp-and-interest-rate-forecasts-and-recession-from-the-spf
The elusive soft landing.
Counterpoint: The most important
and overlooked economic indicator.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/11/15/cfnai-most-overlooked-economic-number
Government
Shutdown
Kicking the can down the road.
War
in the Middle East
A brief history of the Middle East.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/11/dont-know-much-about-middle-eastern-history.php
Bottom line
Advice from a bond
guru (I am not sure that I would take it).
https://blog.validea.com/advice-from-the-bond-markets-buffett/
The ten year Treasury is undervalued.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-15-november-2023/
S&P dividend
futures.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/fall-2023-snapshot-of-future-for-s-500.html
Investing
behavioral hacks.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/11/investing-behavioral-hacks/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Thursday morning
humor (This is really good).
https://babylonbee.com/news/45-things-trump-has-promised-in-his-second-term
The
turbulent love story of Napoleon and Josephine.
The
truth behind the turbulent love story of Napoleon and Joséphine
(nationalgeographic.com)
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4451.html
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