Thursday, November 16, 2023

The Morning Call---Soft landing?

The Morning Call

 

11/16/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-rips-bonds-stocks-sink-fci-doom-loop-looms

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 231,000 versus expectations of 220.000.

 

October PPI was down 0.5% versus projections of +0.1%; core PPI was flat versus +0.3%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/15/inflation-ppi-producer-price-index-falls-october-2023

 

October retail sales fell 0.1% versus forecasts of -0.3%; ex autos, they were up 0.1% versus 0.0%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/15/retail-sales-fall-october-2023

 

The November NY Fed manufacturing index came in at +9.1 versus estimates of -2.8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2023/11/15/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-activity-grew-modestly-in-november

 

The November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at -5.9 versus consensus of -9.0.

 

                        International

 

September Japanese machinery orders were up 1.4% versus predictions of +0.9%; the October trade balance was Y-662.5 billion versus Y-735.7 billion.

 

                        Other

                         

                          Architectural billings continue to decline.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/aia-continuing-decline-in-architecture.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Credit where credit is due.

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/14/can-the-fed-finally-declare-victory/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

This author’s tone is a bit too fatalistic and his conclusion extremely dire; but he frames the problem correctly and solving it will be painful.  Just not as bad as he forecasts.

              https://spectator.org/treasury-are-we-going-the-way-of-argentina-the-u-s-treasurys-fiscal-dominance-problem/

               

            Recession

 

              Survey of Professional Forecasters outlook for GDP and interest rates.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/11/gdp-and-interest-rate-forecasts-and-recession-from-the-spf

 

              The elusive soft landing.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-elusive-soft-landing-is-coming-into-view-ef708d64?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Counterpoint: The most important and overlooked economic indicator.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/11/15/cfnai-most-overlooked-economic-number

 

            Government Shutdown

 

              Kicking the can down the road.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/house-passes-spending-plan-easing-threat-of-government-shutdown?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            War in the Middle East

 

              A brief history of the Middle East.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/11/dont-know-much-about-middle-eastern-history.php

 

     Bottom line

 

            Advice from a bond guru (I am not sure that I would take it).

            https://blog.validea.com/advice-from-the-bond-markets-buffett/

              

            The ten year Treasury is undervalued.

             https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-15-november-2023/

 

            S&P dividend futures.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/fall-2023-snapshot-of-future-for-s-500.html

 

            Investing behavioral hacks.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/11/investing-behavioral-hacks/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

Thursday morning humor (This is really good).

https://babylonbee.com/news/45-things-trump-has-promised-in-his-second-term

 

            The turbulent love story of Napoleon and Josephine.

            The truth behind the turbulent love story of Napoleon and Joséphine (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4451.html

 

 

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