The Morning Call--The Fed can wait

 

The Morning Call

 

11/1/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

                Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-spooked-3rd-straight-month-ww3-fears-spark-surge-usd-gold-crypto-not-oil

 

                What could go right in November?

                https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-what-could-go-right-november

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.1% while purchase applications were down 1.4%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          The August Case Shiller home price index was up 0.4%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/31/s-p-case-shiller-home-price-index-continues-to-trend-upward-in-august

 

                          The October Chicago PMI came in at 44 versus projections of 45.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/31/chicago-pmi-practically-unchanged-in-october

 

The October consumer confidence index was 102.6 versus consensus of 100.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/10/31/consumer-confidence-declines-for-third-straight-month-despite-continued-spending

 

The October ADP private payroll report showed job gains of 113,000 versus expectations of 150,000.

                                                    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-signals-continued-wage-growth-decline

 

 

                        International

 

The final October Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.7 versus forecasts of 48.5; the final October Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 50.8.

 

                        Other

           

The Fed

 

              The Fed can wait.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-can-wait-d98826e1?mod=hp_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=280597854&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8B_JYm4epn6jSjNlXWqdtIU81sLSsAzfVPDXYInoeeTbtrX61rbapPH7sKPknA1HWWNpu8_FKFdU2i1SeoLLaWBRk6yQ&utm_content=280597854&utm_source=hs_email

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Druckenmiller hammers Yellen.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biggest-blunder-history-treasury-druck-dunks-yellen-her-husband-appears-agree

 

            Recession

 

              Update on the probability of recession.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/10/us-recession-probability-continues.html

 

              Eurozone growth and inflation decline as high rates bite.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wrapup1-euzo-zone-inflation-growth-slow-ecb-hikes-weigh-2023-10-31/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=280597854&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9jd4Ki2tmG2jJZTMEEWafgv6qZVkK-j2LB6rgwOrCebiJygsI-X4oGJMgWL1j84e4g7UUpMSFNsdGP8Hr6po_GNIL9fQ&utm_content=280597854&utm_source=hs_email

 

            China

 

              China’s economy shows fresh signs of slowing.

  https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-manufacturing-pmi-fell-into-contraction-for-october-816f051e?mod=hp_lead_pos3&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=280597854&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_nGotjn-rrKGhNIvPjLCMhEMUP_qyyNpH0IY2lI4F8Id-ef-ewfNMEdADWWCm0zVIVz6QH8mtyAO_VByxpZyAo-PWkqA&utm_content=280597854&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

            The Bond Market

 

              Six Halloween charts.

              https://www.ft.com/content/03c96c8e-596e-4a1e-a7b0-001815284c99

 

     Bottom line

 

            Yearend stock rally rests of liquidity and earnings.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/year-end-stock-rally-rests-liquidity-earnings

 

            Follow Buffett’s rule.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/10/30/weekly-market-pulse-follow-buffetts-rule/

 

This article parrots a similar theme as the one above; that is, what makes stocks cheap is fear which then requires courage to act.  I have found that by pre-setting a Buy Price on each stock in our Universe (which my model adjusts quarterly) and then making myself act when that price is hit, I can overcome this problem.  There are, of course, times when my model isn’t fast enough to catch up with rapidly changing fundamentals.  However, by and large this discipline works as testified to by my Portfolio’s performance.

https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2023/10/31/with-the-best-of-intentions/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declares $1.22/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/top-10-ways-to-acquire-wealth-under-bidenomics

 

            Emoting is easier than thinking dispassionately.

            https://www.aier.org/article/emoting-is-easier-and-more-fun-than-is-thinking-dispassionately/

 

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/10/quotation-of-the-day-4436.html

 

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