The Morning Call---Only promises to spend more and tax less

 

The Morning Call

 

11/9/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-black-gold-breakdown-loosening-financial-conditions-foil-feds-plan

 

            Here come the surge in stock buybacks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-surge-stock-buybacks-goldman-models-record-142bn-cta-buying

 

            Never underestimate the upside force.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ready-everything-market-2024

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus estimates of 218,000.

 

                        International

           

September YoY Chinese retail sales were up 1.5% versus projections of +2.9%; October YoY CPI was -0.2% versus -0.1%; October YoY PPI was -2.6% versus -2.7%.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Only promises to spend more and tax less.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-2024-presidential-candidatesare-whiffing-on-the-economy-c2ca34be

 

              The inexorable rise of US debt and interest payments.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-surge-stock-buybacks-goldman-models-record-142bn-cta-buying

 

            Inflation

 

              The interest rates shock will blow up the government’s Ponzi scheme.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/interest-rate-shock-will-blow-governments-ponzi-game

 

  Used car prices continue to fall.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-vehicle-prices-record-largest-maximum-drawdown-history

 

            Recession

 

              Update on Q4 nowcast.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-growth-still-appears-set-for-substantial-slowdown/

 

                 Banks report tighter lending standards.

             https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-report-tighter-lending-standards-210400204.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              War, inflation and a hint of optimism.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/war-inflation-and-hints-of-optimism-dominate-new-economy-forum?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            China

 

              IMF raises China’s 2023 GDP growth forecast.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/imf-raises-china-gdp-forecast-after-beijings-policy-moves.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            It is not unusual for small caps to underperform.

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-uptrend-in-small-caps/

 

The private debt market is out of control.

https://www.ft.com/content/fb9e4fbd-3a10-40fd-9c12-14d5ac181168

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.00/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wisdom and influence.

            https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/wisdom-and-influence

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4447.html

 

            The secret power of swearing.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/01/opinion/swearing-language-power.html

 

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