The Morning Call--Lessons from 2023

 

The Morning Call

 

11/29/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/waller-whacks-dollar-dovish-fed-hawk-sparks-bid-bullion-bonds-bitcoin

 

            The bull could be running out of steam.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/pay-attention-bull-could-be-running-out-steam

 

            No wonder stocks are rallying.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-qt-doing-no-wonder-stocks-are-rallying

 

            The VVIX mini jaws.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vvix-mini-jaws

 

            Investors still aren’t happy.

            https://allstarcharts.com/investors-are-still-sad/

 

            Gold now challenging that all-time high resistance zone.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/brutal-gold-break

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

 Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.3% while purchase applications were up 4.7%.

 

  Month to date retail chain store sales grew much faster than in the prior week.

 

  The September Case Shiller home price index was up 0.2%, in line.

   https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/28/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-trend-upward-september-2023

 

  November consumer confidence came in at 102.0 versus consensus of 102.1.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/28/consumer-confidence-index-conference-board-bounces-back-november-2023

 

  The November Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -5 versus predictions of +2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/28/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-slowed-november-2023

                                                            

                        International

 

The November preliminary German CPI was -0.4% versus estimates of -0.2%.

 

November EU economic sentiment was 93.8 versus forecasts of 93.7; industrial sentiment was -9.5 versus -8.9; services sentiment was +4.9 versus +4.3; consumer confidence was -16.9, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              The inflation indices: less than useful information.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/less-than-useful-data-inflation-indices.html

 

              Economists see stubborn core inflation keeping rates higher for longer.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/economists-see-stubborn-us-core-inflation-keeping-rates-higher?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              Some things to be thankful for.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/11/26/weekly-market-pulse-some-things-to-be-thankful-for/

 

                  Update on housing market.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/prices-of-new-houses-drop-further-18-year-over-year-sales-drop-high-inventories-rise-further-supply-jumps.html

 

                  Soft landing?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/11/soft-landing

 

                  The latest Q4 nowcasts.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-nowcast-still-points-to-moderate-growth/

 

                Civil Strife

 

              Tucker Carlson interviews Steve Bannon.

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1729272962627379219?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1729272962627379219%7Ctwgr%5E280f17f37a199cc391c90b8e664b1c9a74a86763%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fireland-powder-keg-tucker-carlson-and-steve-bannon-ireland-stabbing-insanity-and

 

                The coronavirus

 

              The big fail.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/11/the-big-fail.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Is the S&P broken?

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/

 

            A look at a small cap performance.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/not-necessarily-the-mega-caps-and-everyone-else

 

            The lessons from 2023 (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-everyone-got-everything-wrong-stunning-lessons-2023-and-what-expect-2024

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The majority of US gun deaths are suicides.

            https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/20/how-to-prevent-gun-suicides-in-america

 

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