The Morning Call
11/2/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-bad-data-fed-nikileaks-spark-bond-stock-rally
Note:
the S&P continued to move higher, closing above the 23.6% Fibonacci
retracement level and just short of its 200 DMA. Successfully challenging that DMA would
clearly be a plus. That said, all we can
really say at this point is that the index has bounced off the lower boundary
of a very short term downtrend. A close
above the upper boundary of that downtrend would mark its end and hold hope for
a change in direction and momentum.
Patience.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-now-what-0
Goldman reiterates
pain trade is to the upside.
JP
Morgan’s trading desk turns bullish.
Note: both the
above are ‘tactical’ bullish calls, meaning that if you are a trader, it may be
a good time to buy. But don’t buy
anything that you are not willing to sell on a short term basis.
What could go right in November?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/11bn-daily-buyingwhat-could-go-right-november
Fundamental
The
Economy
US
Weekly
initial jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus expectations of 210,000.
Q3 nonfarm productivity
increased by 4.7% versus consensus of 4.1%; unit labor costs fell 0.8% versus
+0.7%.
September job openings (JOLTS) totaled 9.5 million
versus projections of 9.2 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/01/job-openings-jolts-september-2023
September
construction spending was up 0.4%, in line.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/construction-spending-increased-04-in.html
The October final manufacturing
PMI was reported at 50.0, in line.
The October ISM
manufacturing index was 46.7 versus estimates of 49.0.
International
The final October
German manufacturing PMI was 40.8 versus consensus of 40.7; the October
unemployment rate was 5.8%, in line.
The final October EU manufacturing PMI was 48.0,
in line.
Other
September median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/median-household-income-in-september.html
The Fed
The FOMC left
rates unchanged and acknowledged that the bond market is doing its job for it. In Powell’s subsequent press conference, his
tone was markedly dovish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-0
Mission accomplished?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mission-accomplished-central-banks-apart-boe
Fiscal
Policy
The Treasury announced its new auction
schedule.
Recession
Atlanta Fed slashes Q4 GDP growth estimate.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/partys-over-atlanta-fed-slashes-q4-gdp-estimate-23-12
Europe at risk of going into a recession.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/31/business/europe-economy-q3-gdp-recession-risk/index.html
The Bond Market
Druckenmiller says he has ‘massive’ bet on two
year Treasuries.
Bottom line
Weak demand warnings
are piling up this earnings season.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
C.H.
Robinson Worldwide press release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of
$0.84 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $4.34B (-27.9% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.02 beats by $0.11.
Revenue
of $8.67B (-23.9% Y/Y) beats by $150M.
Cummins press release (NYSE:CMI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.73 beats by $0.04.
Revenue
of $8.43B (+15.0% Y/Y) beats by $250M.
UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.62/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/10/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-994.html
On free speech.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/are-we-being-cynical-enough
EV’s aren’t working.
https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-executives-coming-clean-evs-arent-working-2023-10
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