The Morning Call--Don't dismiss a 'hard' landing

 

The Morning Call

 

11/17/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-soar-dismal-data-amid-carnage-crude-crypto

 

            Three more charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-largest-buying-record

 

            The best time of year for stocks.

            https://allstarcharts.com/this-is-just-the-beginning/

 

            The party is ending.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-just-bought-most-us-stocks-10-day-period-record-party-ending

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

October industrial production fell 0.6% versus consensus of -0.3%; capacity utilization was 78.9% versus 79.4%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/16/industrial-production-recession-big-four-indicators-october-2023

 

October housing starts rose 1.9% versus expectations of -1.3%; October building permits were up 1.1% versus -1.5%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-starts-permits-unexpectedly-jump-october-despite-homebuilder-sentiment

 

                          The November housing index came in at 34 versus predictions of 40.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/16/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-down-again

 

The November Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was -3 versus estimates of -9.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/16/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity-declined-november-2023

 

                        International

 

                          October EU CPI rose 0.1%, in line.

 

October UK retail sales declined 0.3% versus forecasts of +0.3%; ex fuel, they were down 0.1% versus +0.4%.

                                

                        Other

 

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Yellen fiddles while the economy burns.

  https://www.heritage.org/monetary-policy/commentary/janet-yellen-fiddles-while-americas-economy-burns

               

                Mounting interest costs on government debt is a global problem.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-2-trillion-interest-bill-thats-hitting-governments-90142a5a?mod=economy_lead_pos4&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=282668864&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--y7wDfyH7GIAsVaV11sfiod4n2belXKNUjpXTVYWb1tu2xP_uw_lT3GtZrTMRq1Q7u1Z-S0HyYuV55zvaLFDxqIXiN4Q&utm_content=282668864&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation, RIP

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/11/inflation-rip.html

               

                The global fight against inflation has turned the corner.

                https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-global-fight-against-inflation-has-turned-a-corner-f7482629?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Recession

 

              Another recession indicator.

              https://www.ft.com/content/39f67544-dc19-49e9-9468-cb98f95f9378

 

              The latest Q4 nowcast.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-outlook-appears-on-track-for-modest-growth/

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Jeff Gundlach on ‘cash is trash’.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/11/16/cash-trash-doubleline-has-thoughts

 

            Goldman is starting to get worried.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-one-biggest-financial-conditions-loosening-moves-goldman-warns-we-are-back-fci-loop

 

            Don’t dismiss a ‘hard’ landing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/memo-hard-landing-hasnt-yet-reached-stock-market

 

            David Einhorn turns to gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/einhorn-turns-gold-investors-are-too-complacent-about-geopolitical-uncertainty

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            Williams-Sonoma Non-GAAP EPS of $3.66 beats by $0.32, revenue of $1.85B misses by $90M

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) declares $0.61/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $2.09/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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