Thursday, November 30, 2023

The Morning Call---Latest Beige Book report reflects slowing economy

 

The Morning Call

 

11/30/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

              

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-bonds-bitcoin-black-gold-all-bid-rate-cut-hopes-ramp

 

The unemotional seller.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/unemotional-seller

 

            5400 and bust.

            https://www.pringturner.com/the-bull-market-has-just-been-refreshed-where-does-it-go-from-here/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 218,000 versus estimates of 220,000.

 

The second estimate for Q3 GDP growth was +5.2% versus consensus of +5.0%; for corporate profit growth, it was +4.1% versus +0.4%; for the GDP price index, it was +3.5%, in line; for real consumer spending, it was +3.6% versus +4.0%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/29/gdp-gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-q3-2023

 

October personal income was up 0.2%, in line; October personal spending was up 0.2%, also in line.

 

The October PCE price index was flat versus projections of +0.1%; the core PCE price index was up 0.2%, in line.

                                                         https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-slides-30-month-lows-savings-rate-ticks-higher

 

 

                        International

 

October Japanese industrial production rose 1.0% versus forecasts of +0.8%; October retail sales fell 1.6% versus +0.1%; October YoY housing starts were down 6.3% versus -6.8%; October YoY construction orders were up 4.2% versus +1.1%; November consumer confidence came in at 36.1 versus 35.6.

 

October German retail sales were up 1.1% versus expectations of +0.4%; the November unemployment rate was 5.9% versus 5.8%.

 

The November Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus predictions of 49.7; the November nonmanufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 51.5.

 

 The November YoY EU flash CPI was up 2.4% versus estimates of +2.7%; the core YoY flash CPI was +3.6% versus +3.9%; the November unemployment rate was 6.5%, in line.

                            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-rate-cut-expectations-soar-after-eu-inflation-cools-more-expected

 

                        Other

                       

                          Revised new home sales data.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/new-and-revised-data-suggests-possible.html

 

                          The latest GDP per capita data.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/29/gdp-per-capita-vs-gdp

           

            Recession

 

              OECD says global economic growth will slow in 2024.

              https://apnews.com/article/global-economy-inflation-growth-interest-rates-ukraine-bc4b66c3de107f99cee057c183f04c93

 

              Latest Beige Book report reflects slowing economy.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/feds-beige-book-economic-activity.html

 

                Black Friday sales at major (non-online) retailers disappointing.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-friday-dud-retailers-heavily-dependent-shopping-frenzy-day-saw-sales-drop

 

            The Bond Market

 

              Which is worse, higher deficits or higher rates?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/context-and-facts-expose-bearish-bond-narratives

 

     Bottom line

 

            Ackerman now thinks that Fed will cut rates in Q1.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-28/bill-ackman-bets-fed-will-cut-rates-as-soon-as-first-quarter?srnd=premium&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=284504667&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-875pacLIQ4Eih3Kp-1ByVi6IkoR8jSYXOn_eUMdiUVhOj9Moh3Dp9Euq9u8KJmqDvZzqloO771U7M8BWDGKriKfAYaHg&utm_content=284504667&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            A new look a solving wealth management’s biggest problem.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-new-book-takes-a-deep-dive-at-solving-the-portfolio-problem/#more-21198

 

                Good thing that they were wrong so often.

            https://allstarcharts.com/good-thing-theyre-wrong-so-often/

 

                How bullish should you be?

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/11/how-bullish-were-you-in-2011/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4465.html

                                      

            ESG: another one of those ideas than don’t work.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/another-one-of-those-ideas-that-just-doesnt-work

 

            How to fix your free throw shot.

            https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/nba-free-throws-korean-bank-shots-6d00ee3d

 

            Who gets to claim the world’s richest shipwreck?

            Who gets to claim the ‘world’s richest shipwreck’? (nationalgeographic.com)                

 

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