The Morning Call--Markets grind higher from here

The Morning Call

 

11/7/23

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russell-2000-regional-banks-slammed-yields-crude-rebound

 

            A year-end rally is brewing.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/11/todays-jobs-data-confirms-a-year-end-rally-is-brewing/

 

            Markets grind higher from here.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goes-beyond-short-covering-goldman-flows-guru-confirms-markets-grind-higher-here-year-end

 

            What the Zweig Thrust Indicator is telling us.

            https://quantifiableedges.com/a-look-at-zweig-thrust-signals/

 

            This doesn’t look like a top.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/does-it-look-top-or-not

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September trade balance was -$61.5 billion versus forecasts of -$59.9 billion.

 

                        International

 

September Japanese YoY average earnings rose 1.2% versus expectations of +1.0%; September YoY household spending fell 2.8% versus -2.7%.

 

                          The September EU PPI was +0.5%, in line.

 

The October Chinese trade balance was $56.5 billion versus projections of $82.0 billion.

 

The October EU construction PMI came in at 42.7 versus consensus of 44.4; the October German construction PMI was 38.3 versus 41.5.

 

 

 

                        Other

              

                          Housing inventory up WoW.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/housing-november-6th-weekly-update.html

                   

                                  Hotel occupancy up YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/hotels-occupancy-rate-increased-07-year.html

 

                    Fiscal Policy

 

                 Interest payments as a percent of the deficit.

                 https://ritholtz.com/2023/11/interest-payments-are-an-increasingly-large-part-of-the-us-budget-deficit/

 

                      Treasury borrowing at crisis levels.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-borrowing-running-crisis-era-levels

 

               Recession

 

                 There is still a problem.

                 https://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/commentary/behind-sunny-economic-news-storm-clouds-lurk

 

                 Year over year growth is accelerating modestly.

                 https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/11/weekly-macro-indicators-through-10-28

                        

                   Update on big four recession indicators.

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/06/the-big-four-recession-indicators-october-employment

 

               War in the Middle East

 

                 Mutually assured destruction in the Middle East.

                 https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/nasrallahs-speech-confirms-that-mad-has-been-reached-between-israel-us-the-resistance-axis.html

 

                 The disposition of US naval assets.

                 https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/11/risk-and-uncertainty-market-and-geopolitical

 

     Bottom line

 

               Breakdown of best earnings quarter in a year.

https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/breaking-down-the-best-earnings-quarter-in-a-year-a62ad2a8?mod=hp_lead_pos7&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=281285961&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_FxdAEi5Zf07LcHajWMwCwr1mEeMsq649SoEBHF5NvCMEshKWA16vSDc4UapBLNzSD1sacVq5AUw-5gFVaBLv3LeVvdg&utm_content=281285961&utm_source=hs_email

              

               Is it time to buy small caps?

               https://www.morningstar.com/markets/markets-brief-is-it-finally-time-buy-small-cap-stocks

 

              In investing failure is inevitable.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2023/11/turning-wrong-into-right.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Emerson Electric press release (NYSE:EMR): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.07 misses by $0.24.

Revenue of $3.89B (-4.9% Y/Y) misses by $300M.

 

What I am reading today

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4440.html

 

I am a huge Seinfeld addict.  I usually watch one episode at bedtime as a sedative and will laugh at lines before they are said because I know what’s coming and its still funny.   I include this interview for those who might share my affection.

            https://www.wsj.com/style/julia-louis-dreyfus-seinfeld-veep-e73616bc

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.