The Morning Call--Fed rate cuts won't save the economy

 

The Morning Call

 

11/14/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-shrug-moodys-usa-credit-rating-downgrade-oil-gold-bounce

 

Three more charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-big-systematics-squeeze-upcoming

 

And another three.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-big-busy-buyers

 

Declining expectations for higher stock prices.

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1724097346030460990

 

No one wants to buy bonds.

https://allstarcharts.com/no-one-wants-to-buy-bonds/

 

            Bond rates drop as recession fears return.

            Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October consumer inflation expectations were 3.6%, in line.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-trim-inflation-expectations-turn-most-bearish-stocks-one-year

 

The October budget deficit was $67 billion versus predictions of $65 billion.

 

The October small business optimism index was 90.7 versus consensus of 90.5.

 

October CPI was flat versus forecasts of +0.1%; core CPI was +0.2% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-unexpected-misses-across-board-core-inflation-lowest-over-2-years

 

                        International

 

Q3 EU GDP growth was -0.1%, in line; the November economic sentiment index was 13.8 versus 5.1.

 

The September UK unemployment rate was 4.2% versus estimates of 4.3%; September average earnings (3 Month/YoY) were up 7.9% versus +7.4%.

 

The November German economic sentiment index was 9.8 versus projections of 5.0; the November current conditions index was -79.8 versus -76.9.

 

                        Other

 

                          Not so great expectations.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/not-so-great-expectations

 

            The Fed

 

              When will the Fed cut rates?

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/11/when-will-fed-cut-rates.html

                  

              Wall Street divided on how aggressively the Fed will cut rates.

               https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-13/goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-diverge-on-fed-rate-cut-forecasts?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Fed rate cuts will not save the economy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lacalle-fed-rate-cuts-will-not-save-economy

                  

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Central bankers need a word with the budget masters.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/central-banks-need-word-with-budget-masters-mike-dolan-2023-11-10/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=282227552&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-89vrvC5c5FZ3GdXCF3MW_kxez2Pocbuadb6IkCDKClnR1sG-qNbcFh38EVXI4N4ChD7dnsML0krF7uW93Md-9NtZQGlQ&utm_content=282227552&utm_source=hs_email

 

Inflation

 

  Health insurance is about to boost the inflation rate.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-13/health-insurance-is-about-to-boost-us-inflation-after-months-of-relief?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Recession

 

  Why are tax revenues so weak?

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/if-economy-so-great-why-are-tax-revenues-so-weak

 

  The clearest sign yet of trouble in the commercial real estate market.

  https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/the-clearest-sign-yet-that-commercial-real-estate-is-in-trouble-cb8dfafa?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

Government Shutdown

 

  The GOP’s new plan to avoid a government shutdown.

  https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-congress-budget-mike-johnson-d942acf1a8b163f0b52f209da42953c6

 

War in the Middle East

 

  Why the US supports Israel.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/11/michael-hudson-and-ben-norton-why-does-the-us-support-israel.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Update on valuation.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-s-500-rises-with-fall-of-long-term.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

The background story to ‘The Killers of the Flower Moon’.

The true story of the Osage murders—and why so many remain unsolved (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Make sure that you know what to do if you lose your phone.

            https://www.vox.com/technology/23954548/lost-broken-stolen-phone-save-yourself

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4448.html

 

 

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