The Morning Call
11/27/23
The
Market
Technical
The S&P moonshot
continued last week. However, it is time
to get a bit cautious: (1) the S&P is closing in on the upper boundary of
its short term trading range [~4607] and (2) it still has those huge gap up
opens below. I am not saying Sell; but I
wouldn’t be Buying until I know how the index handles the 4607 level or it closes
those gap up opens.
The long bond was
down slightly on the week, though only after a roller coaster ride. Still it remains in a very short term uptrend. Although like the S&P, it has gap up
opens to fill. Plus, its 100 DMA is immediately
overhead. Let’s see how it handles that
resistance before getting too jiggy.
GLD is once again challenging
its all-time high, though I think that it’s
likely that those gap up opens below will act as restraint. I still see no reason to jump into gold until
it successfully challenges its all-time high (the zone around the horizontal
black line near the top of the chart).
The dollar had a see saw week but did continued its
retreat after unsuccessfully challenging the upper boundary of its short term
uptrend. It is still in short and intermediate
term uptrends, above its 100 and 200 DMAs and has the upward magnetic pull of
that huge gap down open. So for the moment,
I see no reason to assume that any kind of directional change is in the
offing.
Friday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tech-love-and-equity-inflows-upend-vix
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
Last Week Review
Last
week’s economic stats were positive but the primary indicators were negative (two
minus). Of course, it was a slow week
for data; so, I am not inclined to read too much into these numbers.
That
said, my outlook remains the same: (1) inflation is likely in the rear view
mirror, at least for the short to intermediate term, (2) I am sticking with my
‘I don’t have a clue’ outlook on economic growth---which is to say that I
remain in doubt as to whether we get a soft, no or hard landing.
Longer
term the issue remains---a grossly irresponsible fiscal policy which if left
unresolved will ultimately push interest rates and inflation to higher levels
and impede the economy’s ability to grow.
Correcting that won’t be easy. It will take years of fiscal and monetary
restraint to do so. And that would mean less fiscal stimulus and interest rates
staying higher for longer than many now expect---which unfortunately is not apt
to happen.
The
Economy
US
International
Other
Civil
Strife
Brace yourself for what is coming in 2024.
Bottom line
Looser financial conditions are a problem for
the Fed.
Looser
Financial Conditions Are A Problem For The Fed - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
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