The Morning Call
11/15/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Note: yesterday’s S&P
moonshot confirmed the successful challenge of its 100 DMA (now support) and
voided its very short term downtrend. As
I noted previously, there is now very little resistance between current price
levels and the upper boundary of the index’s short term trading range
(~4607). That is the good news. The bad news is the S&P made a huge gap
up open which is on top of the two gap up opens from two weeks ago. As you know, I believe those gaps will be
filled. The only question is when.
Upside panic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/upside-panic-shorts-carried-out-stretchers
What does the
Santa Claus rally mean in 2023?
https://allstarcharts.com/what-does-the-santa-claus-rally-mean-in-2023/
Have we seen the
bottom in bond prices?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/some-charts-bond-beauty-all-ye-need-know
New bull market or
short squeeze?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/so-now-it-beginsno-now-it-ends
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.
Weekly mortgage applications were up 2.8%
while purchase applications were up 3.0%.
International
Preliminary Q3
Japanese GDP growth was -0.5% versus estimates of -0.1%; preliminary Q3 capital
expenditures were -0.6% versus +0.3%; preliminary Q3 private consumption was
flat versus +0.2%; September industrial production was +0.5% versus +0.2%.
The September EU
trade balance was E10 billion versus projections of E22.3 billion; September
industrial production was down 1.1% versus -1.0%.
October YoY
Chinese industrial production was up 4.6% versus consensus of +4.4%; October
YoY retail sales were up 7.6% versus 7.0%; October YoY fixed asset investment
was up 2.9% versus +3.1%; the October unemployment rate was 5.0%, in line.
October German PPI
was down 0.7% versus expectations of +0.3%.
October UK CPI was
0.0% versus forecasts of +0.1%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.4%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/uk-inflation-tumbles-2-year-low-energy-prices-plunge
Other
New
tracking monitor shows retail sales fell in October.
The
Fed
M2 and inflation.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/11/14/m2-and-inflation-firsttrust
Fiscal
Policy
The devolution of fiscal conservatism.
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/a-short-post-about-the-devolution
Pharmaceutical price controls.
Who owns the US national debt?
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/11/september-2023-snapshot-of-who-owns-us.html
Inflation
Signs
that the battle against inflation may not be over.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-last-mile-disinflation-will-be-brutal
Recession
With
interest rates rising, small businesses slam on the brakes.
Goldman expects the global economy to improve in 2024.
Bottom line
Key takeaways from Q3 earnings season.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/11/14/key-takeaways-earnings-season-winds-down
The
difference between an investor and a speculator.
Speculator
Or Investor? What's The Difference? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
The investment reality of higher rates.
https://www.ft.com/content/c00bb1d9-f68a-4e15-9b9d-cf921c35180d
Diversification is
not a free lunch.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2023/11/14/diversification-is-not-a-free-lunch/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/11/quotation-of-the-day-4450.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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