The Morning Call---Inching closer to conflict with Russia/China

 

The Morning Call

 

3/1/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/formidable-feb-data-fks-bond-bulls-fed-pivot-puke-weighs-stocks-commodities

 

            The yield curve is crashing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/yes-curve-crashing

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew at the same rate as the prior week.

 

The December Case Shiller home price index fell 0.9% versus projections of +0.7%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/28/s-p-case-shiller-home-price-index-continued-to-decline-in-december

 

The February Chicago PMI came in at 43.6 versus estimates of 45.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/28/chicago-pmi-down-again-in-february-worse-than-forecast

 

February consumer confidence was 102.9 versus expectations of 108.5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/28/consumer-confidence-declines-again-in-february

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -16 versus consensus of -5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/28/richmond-fed-manufacturing-declined-in-february

 

                        International

                               

 January UK consumer credit was up L1.597 billion versus forecasts of +L0.8 billion.

 

The February Japanese manufacturing PMI was 47.7 versus predictions of 47.4; the February Chinese manufacturing PMI was 52.6 versus 50.5; the February Chinese nonmanufacturing PMI was 56.3 versus 55.0; the February Chinese composite PMI was 56.4 versus 53.7; the February Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.6 versus 50.2; the February German manufacturing PMI was 46.3 versus 46.5; the February EU manufacturing PMI as 48.5, in line; the February UK manufacturing PMI was 49.3 versus 49.2.

 

The February German unemployment rate was 5.5% versus estimates of 5.6%; February German CPI was +0.8% versus +0.6%.

 

                        Other

 

            Recession

 

              FDIC problem banks declined to record low in Q4 2022.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/fdic-problem-banks-decreased-to-record.html

 

              US bankruptcy filing surge.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-bankruptcy-filings-surge-fastest-pace-2009

 

Geopolitics

 

  Inching closer to a conflict with Russia/China.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-stage-set-hybrid-world-war-iii

 

            China

 

              China’s slowing rate of economic growth.

              https://www.ft.com/content/a998c1bc-7632-47c1-baba-6ccd6aaef96e

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The science on masks.

              https://www.thefp.com/p/the-real-science-on-masks-they-make

 

    Bottom line

 

            Capitalism is broken if profit margins don’t mean revert.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/capitalism-broken-if-record-profit-margins-dont-revert

 

            The latest from Citi.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/citi-strategists-say-traders-are-piling-up-short-bets-on-stocks?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Rates versus growth.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/02/26/weekly-market-pulse-good-news-is-good-news/

 

            Is it time to buy bonds?

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-history-101-its-time-to-buy-bonds-5cfe84cc

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning smiles

           

 

 

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