The Morning Call--Garbage lending and garbage accounting

 

The Morning Call

Including six must read articles.

 

11/18/25

 

The Market

         

          Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-chop-around-key-support-crypto-crushed-credit-bruised-bezos-big-bond-deal

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

          The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/might-ants-goldman-macro-trader-ruminates-retail-wrecking-crew

         

          Vixquake in the US.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bondquake-japan-vixquake-us

 

    Technical

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August construction spending rose 0.2% versus consensus of +0.1%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/construction-spending-increased-02-in.html

 

10/18 weekly initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 versus predictions of 254,000.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Jobless claims continue to be slightly elevated.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/jobless-claims-continue-slightly.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              What the Taylor Rule says about the Fed Funds rate.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/taylor-1999-on-miran-2025

 

              The argument for no December rate cut.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/80-economists-expect-dec-rate-cut-heres-why-citadel-disagrees

 

            Inflation

 

              Several measures of affordability.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/affordability

 

              Housing price declines in large metro areas.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-price-drops-gains-in-33-large-expensive-metros-in-october-2025/

 

              Rethinking the inflation risk.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-wall-street-starting-to-rethink-inflation-risk/

 

            Recession

 

              Arguments for a rebound in the economy.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/arguments-for-a-coming-rebound-in-the-economy/

 

              The case for economic reacceleration.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/17/economic-reacceleration-contrarian-view

 

     Investing

 

            Michael Burry’s case against AI.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2025/11/michael-burry-warns-is-the-biggest-tech-rally-of-our-era-built-on-a-lie/

 

            Another word of caution.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/17/the_ai_investment_boom_is_quietly_entering_mania_territory_1147674.html

 

            Counterpoint.

            DEEP DIVE: The Debate About the Quality of AI Earnings

 

            Jeffery Gundlach warns of ‘garbage’ lending.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/gundlach-slams-garbage-lending-in-private-credit-market?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Lance Roberts warns of ‘garbage’ accounting.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ebitda-and-warnings-charlie-munger

 

            The stock market and net money creation.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/the-future-of-the-stock-market-is-written-by-the-net-money-creation?post=537930

 

            Buying beaten down stocks.

            https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/winning-investment-strategy-sitting-right-under-your-nose-if-you-can-hold-it

 

            Full market cycles.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/full-market-cycles-half-bull-and-half-bear

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts (GPC) declares $1.03/share quarterly dividend.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How did President Garfield die?

            How did James Garfield die? The medical mistakes that killed the forgotten U.S. president | National Geographic

 

 

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