The Morning Call
Including four must read articles
11/14/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
broke below the uptrend off its May low for the second time in two weeks (last
time, it recovered that support level the next day). Let’s hope there is a
repeat. Although at this moment, today’s opening looks ugly. If we do get
follow through to the downside, the next support level are: (1) the 50 DMA
~6687, (2) the 100 DMA ~6509, (3) the 200 DMA ~6145. Fears are centered around
the (lack of) macro data and rising concerns about potential AI profitability.
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The bull market is
not over.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/what-is-obviousis-obviously-wrong?post=536867
Commodities have
started to break out higher.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commodities-have-started-break-out-higher
The VIX makes a
higher low (however, it hasn’t made a higher high).
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/vix-higher-low?post=536898
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
The September EU trade
balance was +E19.4 billion versus estimates of +E8 billion; Q3 GDP grew (2nd
est.) 0.2%, in line; Q3 employment grew 0.1% versus 0.0%.
October Chinese
YoY industrial production was up 4.9% versus projections of +5.8%; October YoY
retail sales were up 2.9% versus +2.2%; October YoY fixed asset investments
were down 1.7% versus -0.8%; the October unemployment rate was 5.1% versus
5.2%.
Other
Hotel occupancy rate increased 2.5% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hotels-occupancy-rate-increased-25-year.html
Overnight
News
The White House
unveiled trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador as
part of an initiative to reduce food prices/ address affordability challenges
for American consumers.
NEC Director
Hassett said he expects to see 60k job losses due to the government shutdown,
while he responded that the numbers they have are consistent with more rate
cuts, when asked about inflation.
China’s unreported
gold purchases could be more than 10x its official figures as it quietly tries
to diversify away from the USD, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of
demand behind bullion’s record-breaking rally. FT
South Korea
announced the factsheet with the US was finalized and President Lee said that
US President Trump made a rational decision for the factsheet, while Lee added
they agreed that investment in the US will be limited to commercially viable
projects and that South Korea and the US will build a new partnership for
shipbuilding, AI and the nuclear industry. Lee stated that the sides
agreed on South Korea building a nuclear-powered submarine, and South Korea
will strengthen ties with companies like NVIDIA.
Monetary
Policy
Potentially poor employment numbers argue for
a December rate cut.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/weak-jobs-data-favors-another-rate-cut-in-december-maybe/
The Fed balance sheet: the NY Fed wants more
reserves.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-feds-balance-sheet-is-6-5-trillion-the-new-york-fed-wants-more/
Repos locking up again.
Fiscal
Policy
The debt reduction playbook.
Recession
The next recession caution shoe may have
dropped.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/light-vehicle-sales-and-transportation.html
Subprime auto delinquencies worst in 30 years.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/subprime-auto-loan-delinquencies-top-1994-levels
Tariffs
The Supreme Court can’t mend US trade policy.
Investing
Five tailwinds for the Market.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/5-tailwinds-for-markets/
Defining the Santa
Claus rally.
Nuclear energy
renaissance.
Quantum leaps in
quantum computing.
DEEP DIVE: Quantum
Leaps For Quantum Computing?
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Cisco Systems (CSCO) declares $0.41/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Ban the
filibuster---but only for continuing budget resolutions.
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