Wednesday, November 5, 2025

The Morning Call---Early signs of recession

 

The Morning Call

 

11/5/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-gold-crypto-crushed-hunt-laggards-hammers-mag7

 

                More.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-everythings-stretched-fear-high-valuations-higher-downside-convexity-explosive

 

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Has the blood bath arrived? (The author talks about a blood bath then points to possible lows that are only factionally lower.)

https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-bloodbath-has-arrived?post=533462

 

            GDX remains internally bullish.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/spy-trend-strong-gdx-remains-internally-bullish?post=533224

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.9% while purchase applications were down 0.7%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 5.7% versus +5.2% in the prior week.

 

The October ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs versus estimates of +20,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-shows-labor-market-rebound-october

 

The November small business optimism index was 43.9 versus expectations of 47.7.

 

                        International

 

                          September EU PPI came in down 0.1% versus consensus of -0.3%.

 

The October Chinese services PMI was 52.6 versus predictions of 52.3; the composite PMI was 51.8 versus 51.9; the October German services PMI was 54.6 versus 54.5; the composite PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the October EU services PMI was 53.0 versus 52.6; the composite PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the October UK services PMI was 52.3 versus 51.1; the composite PMI was 52.2 versus 51.1.

 

                        Other

 

                          Median household income in September.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/median-household-income-in-september.html

 

                          Housing prices to income.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/house-prices-to-income.html

 

                          Interpolating weekly jobless claims.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/tabulated-initial-and-continuing-state.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The rate cut skeptics case.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/10/31/fed-rate-cut-inflation

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Congressional perks. (Your tax money at work.)

              https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_d7fcb6c8-de6a-4d3d-ab83-4e3c4bdfd171.html

 

            Recession

 

              Early signs of recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/recession-watch-could-next-one-be-right-around-corner

 

            The Financial System

 

              The risk posed by ‘zombie’ borrowers.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/wall-street-journal-insults-reader-intelligence-depicts-lenders-as-addressing-loan-risks-when-that-horse-has-left-the-barn-and-is-in-the-next-county.html

 

              Looming systematic risk from private credit ratings.

              https://www.ft.com/content/73ee8c6d-3c04-425e-9d2c-ecbf2f376a4f

 

              Private equity investor sounds alarm.

              https://www.ft.com/content/96e3dc95-dbb4-4de0-8893-ce597e58b5d3

           

              Bank lending shows few signs of credit problems.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-lending-gives-little-hint-credit-market-issues-now

 

            Tariffs

 

Even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump on tariffs, they won’t all go

away.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/03/us-governments-net-cash-from-tariffs-jumps-to-record-32-billion-in-october/

           

     Investing

 

            Amidst all this enthusiasm, cash may be wise. (Short term be careful)

            https://alhambrapartners.com/monthly-market-review-is-this-a-bubble/?src=news

 

            How much of a bubble are we in? (long term the bull market is not over)

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-much-bubble-are-we-ubs-strategists-expose-warning-signals-peak

 

Surviving the capex boom. (Another long article. At least read the summary and conclusion.)

https://blog.sparklinecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/sparkline-ai-capex.pdf

 

            Crypto is not digital gold.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/04/aint-digital-gold-crypto

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Expeditors press release (EXPD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.64 beats by $0.24.

Revenue of $2.9B (-3.3% Y/Y) beats by $180M.

 

Expeditors (EXPD) declares $0.77/share semi-annual dividend, in line with previous.

 

McDonald's press release (MCD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.22 misses by $0.11.

Revenue of $7.08B (+3.1% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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