The Morning Call
11/5/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-gold-crypto-crushed-hunt-laggards-hammers-mag7
More.
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Has the blood bath
arrived? (The author talks about a blood bath then points to possible lows that
are only factionally lower.)
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-bloodbath-has-arrived?post=533462
GDX remains internally
bullish.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/spy-trend-strong-gdx-remains-internally-bullish?post=533224
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 1.9% while purchase applications were down 0.7%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 5.7% versus +5.2% in the prior week.
The October ADP
private payrolls report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs versus estimates of
+20,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-report-shows-labor-market-rebound-october
The November small
business optimism index was 43.9 versus expectations of 47.7.
International
September EU PPI came in down 0.1% versus
consensus of -0.3%.
The October
Chinese services PMI was 52.6 versus predictions of 52.3; the composite PMI was
51.8 versus 51.9; the October German services PMI was 54.6 versus 54.5; the
composite PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the October EU services PMI was 53.0 versus
52.6; the composite PMI was 52.5 versus 52.2; the October UK services PMI was
52.3 versus 51.1; the composite PMI was 52.2 versus 51.1.
Other
Median household income in September.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/median-household-income-in-september.html
Housing prices to income.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/house-prices-to-income.html
Interpolating weekly jobless claims.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/tabulated-initial-and-continuing-state.html
Monetary
Policy
The rate cut skeptics case.
https://www.axios.com/2025/10/31/fed-rate-cut-inflation
Fiscal
Policy
Congressional perks. (Your tax money at work.)
https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_d7fcb6c8-de6a-4d3d-ab83-4e3c4bdfd171.html
Recession
Early signs of recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/recession-watch-could-next-one-be-right-around-corner
The
Financial System
The risk posed by ‘zombie’ borrowers.
Looming systematic risk from private credit
ratings.
https://www.ft.com/content/73ee8c6d-3c04-425e-9d2c-ecbf2f376a4f
Private equity investor sounds alarm.
https://www.ft.com/content/96e3dc95-dbb4-4de0-8893-ce597e58b5d3
Bank lending
shows few signs of credit problems.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-lending-gives-little-hint-credit-market-issues-now
Tariffs
Even
if the Supreme Court rules against Trump on tariffs, they won’t all go
away.
Investing
Amidst all this
enthusiasm, cash may be wise. (Short term be careful)
https://alhambrapartners.com/monthly-market-review-is-this-a-bubble/?src=news
How much of a
bubble are we in? (long term the bull market is not over)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-much-bubble-are-we-ubs-strategists-expose-warning-signals-peak
Surviving the
capex boom. (Another long article. At least read the summary and conclusion.)
https://blog.sparklinecapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/sparkline-ai-capex.pdf
Crypto is not digital gold.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/04/aint-digital-gold-crypto
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Expeditors press
release (EXPD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS
of $1.64 beats by $0.24.
Revenue of $2.9B
(-3.3% Y/Y) beats by $180M.
Expeditors (EXPD) declares $0.77/share semi-annual dividend, in line with previous.
McDonald's press
release (MCD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.22 misses
by $0.11.
Revenue of
$7.08B (+3.1% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
What
I am reading today
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