The Morning Call
Including four must read articles
11/21/25
I am taking Thanksgiving week off. I hope you have a very happy holiday.
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-caps-crypto-pumped-dumped-ahead-largest-nov-opex-history
Quote: Including today (dating back to since 1957)
there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to
reverse and close in the red.
On the bright side here is S&P 500’s
average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later
+288bps, 1 month later +472bps.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Three record breaking streaks are over. How
worried should we be?
The latest from
Citadel.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/week-decides-year-citadel-flows-guru-says-seasonals-kick-today
The latest from Goldman.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-behind-todays-brutal-selloff-goldmans-technical-checklist
Crypto flush.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
October existing home sales were up 1.2%
versus consensus of +0.9%.
The November
Kansas City manufacturing index was 18 versus projections of 12.
International
October UK retail
sales fell 1.7% versus predictions of +0.1%; ex fuel, they were down 1.0%
versus -0.2%; November consumer confidence was -19, in line.
The October
Japanese CPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the October trade balance
was -Y231.8 billion versus -Y250.0 billion.
The November
Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus expectations of 49.0; the
flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.0
versus 50.6; the November German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus 50.1;
the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.1
versus 53.2; the November EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.9; the
flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 52.4
versus 52.2; the November UK flash manufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 49.5; the
flash services PMI was 50.5 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.5
versus 52.6.
Other
Output is abundance is affordability.
https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/output-is-abundance-is-affordability
The paradox on prosperity.
A deep dive into
September’s jobs report.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/september-jobs-report-positive-if-stale.html
Recession
Update on big four recession indicators.
The
latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Geopolitics
Ukraine and Europe skeptical of Trump peace
plan.
Investing
How
can we be sure of what we think that we know?
https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/11/13/how-do-we-know/
The crypto bear
market.
https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/the-crypto-bear-market-of-2025-makes-sense-to-me
The dash for trash has been driven by retail
option traders.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Nike (NKE) declared $0.41/share quarterly dividend, 2.5% increase from
prior dividend of $0.40.
Home Depot (HD) declared $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Cultural
confidence.
What
is wrong with how the economics curriculum is being taught?
https://jamesgmartin.center/2025/11/what-is-wrong-with-economics-education/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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