Friday, November 21, 2025

The Morning Call---Have a great Thanksgiving

 

The Morning Call

Including four must read articles

 

11/21/25

 

 

I am taking Thanksgiving week off.  I hope you have a very happy holiday.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-caps-crypto-pumped-dumped-ahead-largest-nov-opex-history

 

Quote: Including today (dating back to since 1957) there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to reverse and close in the red.

On the bright side here is S&P 500’s average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later +288bps, 1 month later +472bps.

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Three record breaking streaks are over. How worried should we be?

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/three-record-breaking-streaks-are-over-how-worried-should-bulls-be/

 

            The latest from Citadel.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/week-decides-year-citadel-flows-guru-says-seasonals-kick-today

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-behind-todays-brutal-selloff-goldmans-technical-checklist

 

            Crypto flush.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-flash-crashes-below-82000-ubs-says-flush-needed-turning-more-constructive

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October existing home sales were up 1.2% versus consensus of +0.9%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/existing-home-sales-rise-1-2-to-8-month-high

 

The November Kansas City manufacturing index was 18 versus projections of 12.

 

                        International

 

October UK retail sales fell 1.7% versus predictions of +0.1%; ex fuel, they were down 1.0% versus -0.2%; November consumer confidence was -19, in line.

 

The October Japanese CPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the October trade balance was -Y231.8 billion versus -Y250.0 billion.

 

The November Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus expectations of 49.0; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.0 versus 50.6; the November German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus 50.1; the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 53.2; the November EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.9; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 52.4 versus 52.2; the November UK flash manufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 50.5 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.5 versus 52.6.

 

                        Other

                       

                          Output is abundance is affordability.

                          https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/output-is-abundance-is-affordability

           

                          The paradox on prosperity.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-11-20/the-american-middle-class-is-shrinking-and-that-s-ok?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                          A deep dive into September’s jobs report.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/september-jobs-report-positive-if-stale.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/the-big-four-recession-indicators-september-2025-employment

 

              The latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.

              https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine and Europe skeptical of Trump peace plan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-europe-reject-trumps-russia-peace-plan-prepare-emergency-call

 

     Investing

 

            How can we be sure of what we think that we know?

            https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/11/13/how-do-we-know/

 

            The crypto bear market.

            https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/the-crypto-bear-market-of-2025-makes-sense-to-me

 

            The dash for trash has been driven by retail option traders.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/painful-dash-trash-driven-speculative-retail-options-traders-socgen

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NKE) declared $0.41/share quarterly dividend, 2.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.40.

 

Home Depot (HD) declared $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Cultural confidence.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/20/cultural_confidence_the_missing_ingredient_of_western_prosperity_1148493.html

 

            What is wrong with how the economics curriculum is being taught?

            https://jamesgmartin.center/2025/11/what-is-wrong-with-economics-education/

 

 

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