The Morning Call--Beware of empty memory banks

 

The Morning Call

 including six must read articles

 

11/11/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bullion-bitcoin-bid-washington-wobble-worries-fade

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The wobble is over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wobble-over-goldman-flows-gurus-say-santa-rally-still-year

 

            A bad day for the big short.

            Bad Day For the Big Short, Thanks To Dip Buyers

           

            Bond volatility explodes.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-vol-explodes-will-spx-notice

 

            Gold rises despite easing rate cut bets.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-rises-despite-easing-fed-cut-bets-us-dollar-recovery?post=535522

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The weekly ADP employment report showed job losses of 11,250 versus +14,500 in the prior week.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-dumps-adp-report-shows-big-job-losses-october-small-biz-optimism-hits-6-month-lows

 

The October small business optimism index was 98.2 versus forecasts of 98.0.

 

                        International

 

The September UK unemployment rate was 3.0% versus predictions of 4.9%; September average earrings (3mo./Yr) were up 4.8% versus+4.7%.

 

October Chinese vehicle sales were up 8.8% versus consensus of +14.4%.

 

The November EU economic sentiment index came in at 25 versus expectations of 24; the November German economic sentiment index was 38.5 versus 41.4; the November German current conditions index was -78.7 versus -80.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The current economic knowns and unknowns.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/10/knowns-unknowns

 

                          Economic uncertainty remains high.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/economy-under-trump-shows-weakness-with-voters-downbeat-polls-show?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          The leading index for commercial real estate fell 7% in October.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html

 

                          Interpolating weekly jobless claims.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/tabulated-state-level-jobless-claims.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

Signs of stress in the money markets (why the end of the shutdown is good for stocks)

https://www.apolloacademy.com/signs-of-stress-in-money-markets/

 

The entire yield curve is up since last FOMC rate cut.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/09/entire-treasury-yield-curve-from-6-months-to-30-years-has-risen-since-feds-rate-cut-mortgage-rates-too-bond-market-edgy-about-inflation-supply/

 

            Fiscal Policy

           

              Senate passes bill to end shutdown.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senate-eyes-monday-passage-shutdown-bill-johnson-thinks-house-has-votes

 

              Big government is the problem, not the solution.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-government-problem-not-solution

 

            Tariffs

 

              Aluminum prices surge as tariffs squeeze supplies.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-aluminum-prices-surge-record-highs-tariffs-squeeze-supply-drain-inventories

 

     Investing

 

            The AI crash is here.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-ai-crash-is-here/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP831&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

When the AI bubble bursts, the damage will be severe.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/when-the-ai-bubble-bursts-the-damage-will-be-severe?post=535106

 

                More on valuations.

            https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/november-2025-stock-market-outlook-where-we-see-investment-opportunities

 

            Corporate America posts best earnings in four years.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2490a2e1-1cb4-4367-89fc-9ccd4ed22802

 

            Beware on empty memory banks.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/11/03/peter-bernstein-rule-beware-empty-memory-banks

 

            Forward returns and the importance of math.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forward-return-and-importance-math

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Tuesday morning humor.

            newLR01 NC YT CV 6 Copia

 

            A good week for the republic.

https://edgyoptimist.substack.com/p/tariffs-and-tallies?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2450694&post_id=178247310&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

 

            Grade inflation produced Mamdani’s proletariat.

            https://www.wsj.com/opinion/grade-inflation-produced-mamdanis-proletariat-d2807aea?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

                       

 

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