Wednesday, November 19, 2025

The Morning Call---The math of expected AI earnings

 

The Morning Call

Including six must read articles

 

11/19/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-bonds-bid-jobs-data-sparks-rise-rate-cut-odds

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The surge in fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surge-fear

 

            Jefferies traders see near term gains.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-think-we-rally-14-reasons-why-jefferies-traders-see-near-term-gains

 

            Stocks getting oversold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/stuck-in-a-downtrend-but-getting-oversold?post=538326

 

            Global selloff is about risk reduction.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stock-selloff-about-risk-reduction-so-far

 

            Gold holds $4,000 again.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-line-holds-again

 

            Bitcoin ETFs see major outflows.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/bitcoin-etfs-see-254m-in-outflows-as-market-pullback-intensifies?post=538323

 

The Japanese long bond is surging to the upside. Historically, that is good for gold and crypto.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/japan-30y-breakout-moves-everything-ai-crypto-gold-even-nvda

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 5.2% while purchase applications were down 2.3%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.1% versus +5.9% in the prior week.

 

The August trade balance was -$59.6 billion versus expectations of -$63.0 billion.

 

August factory orders rose 1.4%, in line.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/august-factory-orders-rebounded-from.html

 

The November housing index came in at 38 versus consensus of 37.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-november-2025

 

                        International

 

September Japanese machine tool orders were up 4.2% versus projections of +0.5%.

 

October UK CPI was up 0.4% versus estimates of +0.5%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%; October EU CPI was +0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          A breakdown of construction spending.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/17/construction-spending-on-data-centers-factories-powerplants-and-office-buildings-boom-at-one-end-bust-at-the-other-end/

 

 

            Overnight News

 

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Signs of a major rethink about the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/17/another-sign-a-major-rethink-of-the-size-of-the-feds-balance-sheet-is-gaining-momentum/

 

              The question is, is the above good economic policy?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-18/fed-latest-central-bank-gets-voodoo-chants-on-balance-sheet?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

               Or will it actually happen?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/a-tsunami-of-liquidity-is-coming-in-2026?post=538322

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The prescription for the next banking crisis.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/business/fed-bowman-bank-oversight.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Reforming healthcare would be a major step in improving ‘affordability’.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-simplest-way-make-american-life-affordable-again

 

              Affordability mythology.

              https://tomknighton.substack.com/p/affordability-mythology

 

              A look at housing affordability.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/grampa-simpson-on-whining-whiners-about-house-affordability

 

            Recession

 

This is a tad hyperbolic, but the point is still there: increasing foreclosures and auto repossessions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/was-major-red-flag-2008-and-now-it-happening-again

 

            Tariffs

 

              The downside to Trump’s tariff policies.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-this-is-not-the-economic-paper-youre-looking-for/?src=news

 

     Investing

 

            Investors waking to affordability and inflation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-are-waking-other-ai-affordability-inflation

 

            Another word of caution.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/economy-ai-jobs-stocks.html

 

            Things are not as bad as many fear.

            The AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios

 

            A snapshot of expected future S&P earnings.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/fall-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future-s.html

 

            The math of expected AI earnings.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/simple-macro-ai-rithmetic-doesnt-add-goldman

 

            Gold under pressure.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-under-pressure-from-hawkish-fed-signals-and-strong-dollar?post=538232

 

                        Results of the latest Fund Manager Survey.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fund-manager-survey-most-see-ai-bubble-are-done-massive-capex-spending-and-love-ems-2026

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock (BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Another reason why our education system needs reform.

            https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ford-motor-ceo-jim-farley-mechanic-shortage-autos-skilled-workers-334ae52d?mod=opinion_lead_pos3

 

 

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