The Morning Call
Including six must read articles
11/19/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-bonds-bid-jobs-data-sparks-rise-rate-cut-odds
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The surge in fear.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surge-fear
Jefferies traders
see near term gains.
Stocks getting oversold.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/stuck-in-a-downtrend-but-getting-oversold?post=538326
Global selloff is
about risk reduction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stock-selloff-about-risk-reduction-so-far
Gold holds $4,000
again.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-line-holds-again
Bitcoin ETFs see
major outflows.
The
Japanese long bond is surging to the upside. Historically, that is good for
gold and crypto.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 5.2% while purchase applications were down 2.3%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 6.1% versus +5.9% in the prior week.
The August trade
balance was -$59.6 billion versus expectations of -$63.0 billion.
August factory
orders rose 1.4%, in line.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/august-factory-orders-rebounded-from.html
The November
housing index came in at 38 versus consensus of 37.
International
September Japanese
machine tool orders were up 4.2% versus projections of +0.5%.
October UK CPI was
up 0.4% versus estimates of +0.5%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%; October EU
CPI was +0.2%, in line.
Other
A breakdown of
construction spending.
Overnight
News
The Trump
administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a
new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials.
Monetary
Policy
Signs
of a major rethink about the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
The question is, is the above good economic
policy?
Or will
it actually happen?
Fiscal
Policy
The
prescription for the next banking crisis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/business/fed-bowman-bank-oversight.html
Inflation
Reforming healthcare would be a major step in
improving ‘affordability’.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-simplest-way-make-american-life-affordable-again
Affordability mythology.
https://tomknighton.substack.com/p/affordability-mythology
A look at housing affordability.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/grampa-simpson-on-whining-whiners-about-house-affordability
Recession
This is a tad hyperbolic,
but the point is still there: increasing foreclosures and auto repossessions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/was-major-red-flag-2008-and-now-it-happening-again
Tariffs
The downside to Trump’s tariff policies.
Investing
Investors waking
to affordability and inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-are-waking-other-ai-affordability-inflation
Another word of
caution.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/economy-ai-jobs-stocks.html
Things are not as
bad as many fear.
The
AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios
A snapshot of
expected future S&P earnings.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/fall-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future-s.html
The
math of expected AI earnings.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/simple-macro-ai-rithmetic-doesnt-add-goldman
Gold under
pressure.
Results of the latest Fund Manager Survey.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock (BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Another
reason why our education system needs reform.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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