The Morning Call--Investor dilemma

 

The Morning Call

 

11/4/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-squeezers-shredded-dash-trash-disappoints-crypto-crushed-credit-weak

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Gold pushes higher, holding technical uptrend.

                        https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-pushes-higher-on-political-stalemate-weak-growth-signals-and-technical-uptrend?post=532994

 

            Technical analysis warning for crypto.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/crypto-breakdown-technical-analysis-warning-for-crypto-investors-in-eth-sol-xrp-avax-link-ada?post=533016

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The October manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5 versus consensus of 52.2.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-october-2025

 

The October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7 versus projections of 49.5.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/ism-manufacturing-confirms-regional.html

 

October total vehicle sales were 15.3 million versus forecasts of 15.6 million.

                                               

                        International

 

The October Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus predictions of 48.3.

 

                        Other

 

                          Labor market indicators amidst the shutdown.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/labor-market-indicators-amidst-the-shutdown

 

                          Lumber prices down 3% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/update-lumber-prices-down-3-yoy.html

 

            Overnight News

 

The outlines of a potential deal to end the [US government] shutdown are starting to take shape, although the talks are very fragile at this point and there’s still a long way to go.

 

A string of alleged frauds by corporate borrowers is spurring a reckoning across Wall Street, sending bankers and investors scrambling to prevent future blowups.

 

Wall Street seems unworried about the lackluster breadth of the equity market rally, despite parallels to the tech bubble of the late 1990s. The charge is increasingly led by a handful of tech companies, with the ratio of S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index to the S&P 500 at its lowest since 2003.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed Funds rate is becoming a meaningless measure.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/01/what-does-the-federal-funds-rate-which-the-fed-targets-still-measure-not-much-mostly-a-bizarre-arbitrage-trade/

 

              Goldman thinks that the Fed will still cut rates in December.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-powells-halloween-curse-december-fed-cut-still-our-baseline

 

Liquidity problems in the repo market could lead to a Market meltup once the government shutdown is over.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-hell-breaks-loose-repo-markets-and-why-historica-meltup-could-follow

 

            Inflation

 

              What if Markets are too relaxed about inflation?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-asks-what-if-markets-are-too-relaxed-about-inflation

 

            Recession

           

              GDP is hot.

              GDP IS HOT

           

              US outgrows all major peers.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/united-states-outgrows-all-its-major-peers

 

            The Financial System

 

              Office building delinquencies rate hits record high.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-hits-record-11-8-percent-much-worse-than-financial-crisis-meltdown-multifamily-delinquency-rate-soars-to-7-1-percent/

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              SCOTUS should rule against Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/03/we_are_a_republic_which_means_scotus_should_rule_against_trump_tariffs_1144842.html

 

     Investing

 

            What does the rise in gold’s price mean?

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/11/02/a-different-way-of-looking-at-the-rally-in-the-price-of-gold/

 

            Investor dilemma: Pavlov rings the bell.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investor-dilemma-pavlov-rings-bell

 

            Is it 1999 all over again?

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/are-we-living-through-1999-all-over-again/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP829&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Dumb money triumphant.

            https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/dumb-money-triumphant

 

            The most important factor driving stock prices is earnings and they are growing.

            https://www.tker.co/p/sp-500-forward-pe-high-aug-2020

 

            The impact congress has on stock prices.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/government-crowding-out

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/pe10-market-valuation-october-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/qratio-market-valuation-october-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/03/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-198-above-trend-in-october

 

            Strategies for a crisis.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/03/have-questions-readers

 

            Treasuries rally proving critics wrong.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-11-02/us-treasury-rally-stuns-wall-street-with-best-return-since-2020?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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