Wednesday, November 12, 2025

The Morning Call---Anticipating the news on CPI and the unemployment rate

 

The Morning Call

Including seven must read articles

 

11/12/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wrecks-crypto-dumped-crude-pumped-bonds-bid-bad-data

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/ranking

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Goldman: bad breadth is long term bullish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-breadth-long-term-bullish-goldman-traders-see-positive-fund-flows-supporting-year-end

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.6% while purchase applications were up 6.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew 5.9% versus 5.7% the prior week.

 

                        International

 

October Japanese YoY machine tool orders were up 16.8% versus estimates of +10.2%.

 

October German CPI came in at +0.3%, in line; October PPI was +0.3%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

Housing concerns (the negative equity rate is the degree to which a home’s value is less than the mortgage on it)

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/negative-equity-and-other-things-to-worry-about

 

                          New home sales incentives are not enough.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-incentives-are-the-highest-since-2009-but-not-enough/

 

                          Auto loan balances and delinquency rates.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/10/how-americans-handled-their-auto-loans-leases-in-q3-2025-subprime-prime-delinquency-rates-balances-and-burden/

 

 

  America’s ‘K’ shaped economy.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/11/k-shaped-economy-americas

 

  Interpolating CPI.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/october-inflation-unexpectedly-crumbles-amid-biggest-drop-rents-15-years

 

 Goldman on the anticipated unemployment rate.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/labor-market-freefall-us-loses-50000-jobs-october-mass-layoff-notices-soar

 

            Overnight News

 

US House lawmakers are expected to vote today to end the 43-day government shutdown. It may still take days for air travel to return to normal and probably longer for SNAP recipients to receive delayed benefits.

 

The path for interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure. Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of official economic data may not bridge the differences.

 

China’s purchases of American soybeans appear to have stalled, less than two weeks after the US touted a wide-ranging trade truce that signaled thawing relations between the world’s two biggest economies.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              67 wasteful contracts terminated.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-government-agencies-terminate-67-wasteful-contracts-worth-14-billion-doge

 

            Recession

 

Copper/gold ratio suggests shutdown end may disclose data reflecting a slowdown.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-ratio-shows-shutdowns-end-may-reveal-slowdown

 

              Four shocks jolting the economy toward recession.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-4-shocks-jolting-us-economy-towards.html

 

            The Financial System

 

                Another cockroach.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mark-it-zero-blackrock-hit-sudden-total-loss-150-million-private-loan

 

 

              Another risk to the financial system.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-next-financial-crisis.html

 

     Investing

 

            How long will investors ignore voters/consumers sour mood?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/monthly-macro-monitor-investors-and-voters-are-in-a-sour-mood/?src=news

 

            It’s a bubble. Now what?

            https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/

 

            The negative case for AI spending.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/who-will-end-up-paying-for-the-ai-spending-spree.html

 

            Investor angst over big tech’s AI spending.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d2bf6c25-fb42-4f13-b81c-a72883632f50

 

            Barclay’s reviews the expected AI capex spending (credit needs).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oracle-first-ai-domino-drop-after-barclays-downgrades-its-debt-sell

 

            Crypto investors lose billions in biggest ever liquidation.

            https://www.moneysense.ca/columns/canadian-crypto-observer/crypto-investors-lose-billions-in-biggest-ever-liquidation-event/

 

            Geniuses of stablecoin.

            WEEKLY WEBCAST: Geniuses Of Stablecoin

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) declares $1.70/share quarterly dividend, 10.4% increase from prior dividend of $1.54.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The case for high skilled immigration.

            https://conversableeconomist.com/2025/11/05/the-case-for-high-skilled-immigration/

 

 

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