The Morning Call
Including seven must read articles
11/12/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wrecks-crypto-dumped-crude-pumped-bonds-bid-bad-data
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/ranking
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Goldman: bad
breadth is long term bullish.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 0.6% while purchase applications were up 6.0%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew 5.9% versus 5.7% the prior week.
International
October Japanese YoY
machine tool orders were up 16.8% versus estimates of +10.2%.
October German CPI
came in at +0.3%, in line; October PPI was +0.3%, also in line.
Other
Housing concerns
(the negative equity rate is the degree to which a home’s value is less than
the mortgage on it)
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/negative-equity-and-other-things-to-worry-about
New home sales incentives are not enough.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-incentives-are-the-highest-since-2009-but-not-enough/
Auto loan balances and delinquency rates.
America’s ‘K’ shaped economy.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/11/k-shaped-economy-americas
Interpolating CPI.
Goldman on the anticipated unemployment rate.
Overnight
News
US House lawmakers
are expected to vote today to end the 43-day government shutdown. It may still
take days for air travel to return to normal and probably longer for SNAP
recipients to receive delayed benefits.
The path for
interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central
bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly
eight-year tenure. Officials are fractured over which poses the greater
threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of
official economic data may not bridge the differences.
China’s purchases of American soybeans appear to have
stalled, less than two weeks after the US touted a wide-ranging trade truce
that signaled thawing relations between the world’s two biggest economies.
Fiscal
Policy
67 wasteful contracts terminated.
Recession
Copper/gold ratio suggests
shutdown end may disclose data reflecting a slowdown.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-ratio-shows-shutdowns-end-may-reveal-slowdown
Four
shocks jolting the economy toward recession.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-4-shocks-jolting-us-economy-towards.html
The
Financial System
Another cockroach.
Another risk to the financial system.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-next-financial-crisis.html
Investing
How long will
investors ignore voters/consumers sour mood?
https://alhambrapartners.com/monthly-macro-monitor-investors-and-voters-are-in-a-sour-mood/?src=news
It’s a bubble. Now what?
https://spyglass.org/ai-bubble/
The negative case
for AI spending.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/11/who-will-end-up-paying-for-the-ai-spending-spree.html
Investor angst over big tech’s AI spending.
https://www.ft.com/content/d2bf6c25-fb42-4f13-b81c-a72883632f50
Barclay’s reviews
the expected AI capex spending (credit needs).
Crypto investors
lose billions in biggest ever liquidation.
Geniuses of
stablecoin.
WEEKLY
WEBCAST: Geniuses Of Stablecoin
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Automatic Data
Processing (ADP) declares $1.70/share quarterly dividend, 10.4% increase from
prior dividend of $1.54.
What
I am reading today
The
case for high skilled immigration.
https://conversableeconomist.com/2025/11/05/the-case-for-high-skilled-immigration/
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