Thursday, November 13, 2025

The Morning Call---The reflationary narrative is likely to dominate

 

The Morning Call

Including seven must read articles.

 

11/13/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-black-gold-battered-bonds-bullion-bid-ai-angst-builds

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            S&P eyes new highs; GLD possibly consolidating.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/spy-eyes-new-highs-gdx-signals-possible-consolidation?post=536191

 

            Surging bond volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-volatility-soaring-will-it-spill-over-spx

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

Q3 UK preliminary GDP grew 0.1% versus consensus of +0.3%; Q3 preliminary business investment fell 0.3% versus -0.7%; the September trade balance was -L18.9 billion versus -L19.3 billion; September industrial production was down 0.2% versus -0.1%; September YoY construction output was up 1.3%, in line.

 

September EU industrial production was up 0.2% versus expectations of up 0.5%.

 

October Japanese PPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of up 0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

            Overnight News

 

The government shutdown officially ended and furloughed federal employees were set to return to work. Donald Trump signed a temporary funding bill into law, but it may take days to weeks to backpay workers and reinstate food aid, among other functions.

 

US officials flagged they will reduce tariffs on popular groceries, as pressure mounts to address the cost-of-living crisis.

 

EU is set to propose a plan to the US that would implement the next phase of the trade agreement reached in the summer.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump’s 50 year mortgage idea does nothing for affordability.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/11/a-50-year-mortgage-does-nothing-for-affordability-is-a-terrible-deal-for-homeowners-and-a-superb-deal-for-banks-investors/

 

              An interesting argument for not raising the social security retirement age.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/12/raising_the_social_security_retirement_age_would_be_a_big_government_mistake_1146534.html

 

              Investors now see some corporate bonds as safer than government debt.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/why-companies-like-microsoft-look-safer-than-governments?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Inflation

 

              The reflationary narrative is likely to dominate.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reflationary-narrative-likely-dominate-here-citadel-macro-maven

 

            The Financial System

 

              Hedge funds are muscling in on the red hot private markets.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/hedge-fund-giants-muscle-into-private-markets?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Warnings from the private credit sector.

              https://www.ft.com/content/ea5582a4-910b-44a0-8ed4-f0482856cd4a

 

     Investing

 

            This hated rally.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/is-this-really-a-hated-rally/

 

            Extremes in valuation.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/extreme-valuations-for-the-sp-500/

 

            Why you should treat this stock rally with skepticism.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/this-is-why-you-should-treat-the-stock-rally-with-skepticism?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Why buying the biggest stock market losers can be a winning strategy.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-buying-the-biggest-stock-market-losers-can-be-a-winning-strategy-a39b0759?st=7YvQEj

 

            AI’s low tech problem.

            DEEP DIVE: AI's Low-Tech Problem

 

            Who is going to fund the astonishing huge AI capex spending?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/astonishingly-large-numbers-it-will-take-5-trillion-fund-ai-cycle-and-us-government-hook

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cisco Systems press release (CSCO): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $14.88B (+7.5% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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