Thursday, November 20, 2025

The Morning Call---There is no such thing as a 'K' shaped economy

 

The Morning Call

Including five must read articles

 

11/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fractured-fed-feeds-hawkish-flows-bitcoin-bullion-big-tech-pumpndump

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats. (note the continuing breadth problem)

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            What’s behind the recent selloff?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-reasons-why-everything-has-been-selling-once

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-rally-stick-heres-what-goldmans-delta-one-desk-watching

 

Tokyo bond quake. (note: a reader pointed out that I had omitted a key word [yield] in a post yesterday regarding the Japanese bond. My apologies)

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tokyo-bondquake-bond-volatility-screams-isnt-contained

 

            Dollar breakout.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-breakout-bears-trapped-dxy-closes-above-200-day

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September nonfarm payrolls grew 119,000 versus forecasts of 50,000; the September unemployment rate was 4.4% versus 4.3%; September average hourly earnings were +0.2%, in line.

 

The November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.7 versus predictions of -1.0.

 

                        International

 

September EU YoY construction output fell 0.3% versus estimates of +1,7%.

 

October German PPI came in at +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

The November UK industrial trends orders index was -37 versus forecasts of -30.

 

                        Other

 

                          There is no such thing as a ‘K’ shaped economy.

                          https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/19/theres_no_such_thing_as_a_k-shaped_economy_1147973.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Canada and the US still have a chance to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs despite last month’s diplomatic blowup, Trump’s envoy in Ottawa said.

 

BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev. +4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The Fed released the minutes of its October FOMC meeting---showing a divided Fed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-32

 

              The argument for a December rate cut.

               https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/11/2804_sharplydivided_fed.pdf

 

              US repo rates still high as liquidity tightens.

              https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-fed-cut-us-repo-rates-still-high-liquidity-tightens-into-year-end-2025-11-19/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Update on the social security fund: balance, income, outgo, deficit.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/18/social-security-fiscal-year-2025-trust-fund-balance-income-outgo-deficit-and-interest-rates/

 

            Inflation

 

              More on home affordability.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/rejoinder-to-comments-on-house-price-affordability

 

            Recession

 

              The employment stats that help point to recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/19/payroll-playbook-gauge-recession-risk

           

            Geopolitics

 

              US pressuring Ukraine to end war.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-feels-its-being-heard-trump-advancing-secret-28-point-plan-end-ukraine-war

           

     Investing

 

            Why the Fed’s December rate cut decision isn’t the Market’s biggest worry.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-has-less-sway-over-the-stock-market-than-investors-think-c8f6d5ad?st=F6CyeN

 

            A decision a day is not good for your portfolio’s health.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/11/18/a-decision-a-day/

 

            Bear markets are educational.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-we-could-use-a-good-long-bear-market-73997cb7?st=zBBYpe

 

            Outlook for S&P dividends in November.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            Bearish on bitcoin.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin-a-completed-elliott-wave-pattern-a-possible-bear-market-and-a-bigger-question-about-its-long-term-viability?post=538353

 

US government to buy ten nuclear reactors.  In addition to the stocks mentioned, there is a nuclear ETF: NUKZ.  (this is not a recommendation to buy)

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/national-emergency-us-govt-buy-10-large-new-nuclear-reactors

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Ten things we can learn from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with money.

            https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/10-things-we-can-learn-warren-buffett-that-have-nothing-do-with-money

 

 

 

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