The Morning Call
Including five must read articles
11/20/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Wednesday
in the technical stats. (note the continuing breadth problem)
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
What’s behind the
recent selloff?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-reasons-why-everything-has-been-selling-once
The latest from Goldman.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-rally-stick-heres-what-goldmans-delta-one-desk-watching
Tokyo bond quake.
(note: a reader pointed out that I had omitted a key word [yield] in a post
yesterday regarding the Japanese bond. My apologies)
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tokyo-bondquake-bond-volatility-screams-isnt-contained
Dollar breakout.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-breakout-bears-trapped-dxy-closes-above-200-day
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September nonfarm
payrolls grew 119,000 versus forecasts of 50,000; the September unemployment
rate was 4.4% versus 4.3%; September average hourly earnings were +0.2%, in
line.
The November
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.7 versus predictions of
-1.0.
International
September EU YoY
construction output fell 0.3% versus estimates of +1,7%.
October German PPI
came in at +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.
The November UK
industrial trends orders index was -37 versus forecasts of -30.
Other
There is no such thing as a ‘K’ shaped
economy.
Overnight
News
Canada and the US
still have a chance to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs despite last
month’s diplomatic blowup, Trump’s envoy in Ottawa said.
BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev.
+4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons,
spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023
and 2024 levels".
Monetary
Policy
The Fed released
the minutes of its October FOMC meeting---showing a divided Fed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-32
The argument for a December rate cut.
https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/11/2804_sharplydivided_fed.pdf
US
repo rates still high as liquidity tightens.
Fiscal
Policy
Update on the social security fund: balance,
income, outgo, deficit.
Inflation
More on home affordability.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/rejoinder-to-comments-on-house-price-affordability
Recession
The
employment stats that help point to recession.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/19/payroll-playbook-gauge-recession-risk
Geopolitics
US pressuring Ukraine
to end war.
Investing
Why the Fed’s
December rate cut decision isn’t the Market’s biggest worry.
A decision a day is not good for your
portfolio’s health.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/11/18/a-decision-a-day/
Bear markets are
educational.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-we-could-use-a-good-long-bear-market-73997cb7?st=zBBYpe
Outlook for
S&P dividends in November.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
Bearish on
bitcoin.
US government to
buy ten nuclear reactors. In addition to
the stocks mentioned, there is a nuclear ETF: NUKZ. (this is not a recommendation to buy)
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/national-emergency-us-govt-buy-10-large-new-nuclear-reactors
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Ten
things we can learn from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with money.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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