The Morning Call---The coming fiscal storm

 

The Morning Call

 

11/6/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/election-day-exuberance-sparks-buy-all-things-theme

 

            What is driving the price of gold?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/whats-driving-gold-central-banks-and-hedging-are-key-factors/

 

            Traders brace for volatility and volume.

            https://www.ft.com/content/8fce4fc5-c2e7-474a-9053-55c749aca88a

 

            Goldman’s hedge fund trader: buckle up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buckle-goldmans-hedge-fund-honcho-risk-taking-election

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

The September trade balance was -$84.4 billion versus predictions of -$81.1 billion.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/trade-deficit-increased-to-844-billion.html

 

The October services PMI was 55.0 versus estimates of 55.3; the October composite PMI was 54.1 versus 54.3.

 

The ISM services index was 56.0 versus expectations of 53.8.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/ism-services-index-increases-to-560-in.html

 

                        International

 

The October UK services PMI came in at 52.0 versus forecasts of 51.8; the October composite PMI was 51.8 versus 51.7.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The coming fiscal storm.

              https://capx.co/neither-trump-or-harris-is-prepared-for-the-fiscal-storm/

 

              Social security math.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/04/social-security-update-fiscal-2024-trust-fund-income-outgo-and-deficit/

 

What if Trump/Harris really try to enact their promises? (Spoiler alert---they won’t/can’t)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-05/trump-and-harris-have-ignored-looming-fiscal-crisis-election-2024?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Tariffs

 

              The impact of tariffs.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/11/some-last-pictures-trade-war-2-0

 

            The Election

 

              Politicians aren’t what make America great.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/politicians-arent-what-make-america-great-e05c0083?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos1&mod=WSJ_home_columnists_pos_1

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Don’t bet your portfolio on the election outcome.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-election-anxiety/?src=news

 

            Ignoring political noise.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/11/04/chart-of-the-day-ignoring-political-noise/

 

            October dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/11/dividends-by-numbers-in-october-2024.html

 

            Plan for volatility.

            Election Day! Plan For Volatility - RIA

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cummins press release (NYSE:CMI): Q3 GAAP EPS of $5.86 beats by $1.02.

Revenue of $8.46B (+0.4% Y/Y) beats by $150M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Rome was founded.

            How was Rome founded? Not in a day, and not by twins.

 

 

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