The Morning Call--Reflation frustration

 

The Morning Call

 

11/20/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid-markets-mull-moscow-mullahs-musk-macro

 

            Momentum is the most overbought since 2007.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/most-overbought-2007-and-bodes-well-year-end-melt

 

            To hold or not to hold?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/hold-or-not-hold-0

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 1.7% while purchase applications were flat.

 

                        International

 

September EU YoY constructions output declined 1.6% versus forecasts of -1.0%.

 

The October Japanese trade balance was -Y461.2 billion versus projections of -Y360.4 billion.

 

October German PPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

October UK CPI was up 0.6% versus estimates of +0.5%; core CPI was up 0.4% versus +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          A closer look at yesterday’s housing numbers.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/11/leading-housing-construction-data.html

 

                          Economic uncertainty is rising.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/11/the-return-of-economic-policy-uncertainty

 

                          For the moment, there are few problems in the consumer credit market.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/things-are-quiet-in-consumer-credit-too-quiet-42f22610?mod=economy_lead_story

 

                          October LA port traffic surges.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/long-beach-port-traffic-surges-to.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Pentagon fails its seventh consecutive audit.

              https://notthebee.com/article/john-stewart-grilling-a-dod-official-about-their-failed-audit-is-one-of-the-best-things-on-the-internet-right-now

 

            Inflation

 

              Reflation frustration.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/hawkish-tua

 

            Tariffs

 

              There is no economic case for tariffs.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trump-teams-case-new-tariffs-remains-daunting

 

              Are the worst case fears over Trump’s tariffs justified?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-19/supply-chain-latest-economic-analysis-of-trump-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              Maybe so.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-pick-lutnick-commerce-secretary-reports

 

            Geopolitics

 

              What’s next for Ukraine?

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11/as-biden-uses-long-range-strikes-into-russia-to-create-problems-for-trump-what-else-might-happen-with-ukraine-when-trump-takes-over.html

 

 

    Bottom line.

 

            The case for Bitcoin.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/btc-250000/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP708&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            2025 S&P earnings forecast.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/11/fall-2024-snapshot-of-expected-future-s.html

 

            An earnings led meltup.

            An Earnings-Led Meltup For Stocks?

 

            How to deal with noisy markets.

            https://www.ft.com/content/1d2158a5-2f16-4998-a643-96eb2897f5cb

 

            Ravenous foreign appetite for US Treasuries.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/18/us-treasury-debt-held-by-foreign-investors-ravenous-appetite-for-juicy-treasury-yields-juicy-compared-to-their-stuff-at-home/

 

            Higher rates are coming.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/11/19/economic-strength-drives-long-term-rates

 

                Where does the price of gold go from here?

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-19/gold-is-at-the-mercy-of-trump-china-and-king-dollar?srnd=homepage-americas

 

                Which asset has the best ‘bubble potential’?

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/11/19/which-asset-has-the-best-bubble-potential/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $1.00/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Williams-Sonoma press release (NYSE:WSM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.96 beats by $0.19.

Revenue of $1.8B (-2.7% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The case of Ireland’s missing crown jewels.

            Why the case of Ireland’s missing crown jewels remains unsolved after more than a century

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/9-things-rfk-jr-plans-to-do-on-day-1-to-make-america-healthy-again

 

            The link between blood type and disease.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/link-between-blood-types-and-risks-covid-19-cancer-and-other-diseases

 

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