The Morning Call---Why do so many dislike Trump's tariff plan

 

The Morning Call

 

11/8/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-bullion-big-tech-bid-hawkish-powell-pushes-bond-yields-rate-cut-odds-lower

 

            The risk-on sentiment accelerates.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-for-us-stocks-accelerates/

 

            Is the yield spike overdone?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-bounce-yield-spike-overdone

           

            Bond market gets spooked.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/06/longer-term-treasury-yields-mortgage-rates-explode-yield-curve-un-inverts-further-as-bond-market-gets-spooked/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 221,000, in line,

 

Q3 nonfarm productivity was up 2.2% versus consensus of +2.3%; unit labor costs were up 1.9% versus +1.0%.

 

                        International

 

                          September Japanese average earnings were up 2.8%, in line.

 

The September German trade balance was E17.0 billion versus expectations of E20.9 billion; September industrial production was down 2.5% versus -1.0%; the October construction PMI was 40.2 versus 42.0.

 

September EU retail sales rose 0.5% versus estimates of +0.4%; the October construction PMI was 43.0 versus 42.9.

 

The October Chinese trade balance was +$95.3 billion versus projections of +$75.1 billion.

 

                        Other

                        Wholesale car prices decreased in October.

                        https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-in.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The Fed cuts rates another 25 bp but removed dovish language from post FOMC meeting statement.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-21

 

              Another Fed gem.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4972622-fed-mortgage-backed-securities-losses/

 

              Bank of England cuts rates (for the last time in 2024).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-jumps-after-boes-last-rate-cut-2024-warns-reeves-budget-will-spike-inflation

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The best case for Trump policy.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/what-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on new home affordability.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/11/new-home-affordability-crisis-now-30.html

 

            Recession

 

              The missing slowdown.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-missing-slowdown/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Why so many dislike Trump’s tariff plan?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/trump-s-threat-on-tariffs-who-pays-them-how-do-they-affect-the-economy?srnd=homepage-americas

 

    Bottom line

 

            Trump 2.0 and the financial markets.

            Trump 2.0 and the Financial Markets

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.63/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

EOG Resources press release (NYSE:EOG): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.89 beats by $0.12.

 

 

Revenue of $5.97B (-1.0% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Eight things people get wrong about ancient Rome.

            8 misconceptions about ancient Rome

 

 

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