The Morning Call---Rising doubts about another rate cut.

 

The Morning Call

 

11/14/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-big-tech-bond-yields-blow-out-after-cpi-resurgence

 

            Dash for trash into inauguration.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-dash-trash-inauguration-buy-biggest-losers-most-shorted-stocks

 

            Complacency is rising.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/complacency-rising-monster-rally

 

            Gold: oversold and outdated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-crash-oversold-and-outdated

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus consensus of 223,000.

 

                          October PPI came in at +0.2%, in line; core PPI was +0.3%, also in line.

 

The October budget deficit was $257 billion versus expectations of $211 billion.

 

                        International

 

Q3 EU employment was up 0.2% versus forecasts of up 0.1%; Q3 GDP grew 0.4%, in line; September industrial production fell 2.0%versus -1.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Q3 household debt increased; delinquencies edged higher.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/ny-fed-q3-report-household-debt.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Rising doubts about another rate cut.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/rising-treasury-yields-raise-doubts-about-another-fed-rate-cut/

 

            Inflation

 

              A deep dive into yesterday’s inflation number.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/11/october-consumer-inflation-firms-driven.html

 

              Wall Street reacts to CPI print.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-mile-proving-be-long-and-arduous-wall-street-reacts-todays-goldilocks-cpi

 

              Home prices drop in 29 of 30 largest cities.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/12/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-october-update-prices-drop-in-29-of-30-big-metros-even-san-diego-los-angeles-only-new-york-city-ekes-out-new-high/

 

            Tariffs

 

              The cost of tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/11/13/what_americans_should_know_about_the_costs_of_tariffs_1071530.html

 

              Trump trade policy follies.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/trump-trade-policy-follies/

 

              Trade war and recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/11/trade-war-and-recession

 

              The global impact of tariff policy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-important-chart-trade

 

    Bottom line.

 

            More on valuations.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/sp500-stock-prices-increasing-faster-than-earning-expectations/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Where were the Hanging Gardens of Babylon?

            Were the Hanging Gardens of Babylon actually in Babylon?

 

            Trial by fire.

            https://joylere.substack.com/p/trial-by-fire

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/11/quotation-of-the-day-4827.html

 

 

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