The Morning Call---Investors have rarely been so optimistic

 

The Morning Call

 

11/12/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-bursts-higher-trump-trade-takes-bonds-bullion-dumped

 

            The unstoppable Trump bull train.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/unstoppable-trump-bull-train

 

            Three catalysts sending stocks to the moon.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/11/the-three-catalysts-sending-stocks-to-the-moon/

 

            The latest from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-year-end-rally-20-heres-5-things-goldmans-flows-guru-watching

 

            Investors have rarely been so optimistic.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exuberance-investors-have-rarely-been-so-optimistic

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The October small business optimism index was reported at 93.7 versus forecasts of 91.9.

 

                        International

 

The September UK unemployment rate was 4.3% versus predictions of 4.1%; September average earnings (3 Mo/YoY) were up 4.3% versus +3.9%.

 

October Japanese machine tool orders were up 9.3% versus consensus of -3.7%.

 

October German CPI was up 0.4%, in line; the November economic sentiment index was 7.4 versus 13.0; the November current conditions index was -91.4 versus -85.9.

 

The November EU economic sentiment index was 12.5 versus projections of 20.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Recession

 

              Update on RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/11/11/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

              How healthy is the labor market?

              https://www.fastcompany.com/91224489/the-hidden-truth-behind-job-market-numbers-and-how-they-influenced-the-vote

 

              A rebound in growth is coming.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/a-rebound-in-growth-is-coming/

 

              We may not get a recession until the AI spending bubble implodes.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/10/we-might-not-get-our-recession-until-the-ai-spending-bubble-implodes/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Will Trump increase the use of sanctions?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-11/supply-chain-latest-trump-and-us-sanctions-policy?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              Trump selects new EPA chief.

              https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4984481-trump-lee-zeldin-epa/

 

            Inflation

 

              Will Trump’s policy lead to reflation?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-reflation-end-the-us-bond-markets-recovery/

 

            Tariffs

 

              How much will Trump’s tariffs cost?

              https://reason.com/2024/11/08/how-much-will-trumps-tariffs-cost/

 

              The new economy and tariffs.

              https://angrybearblog.com/2024/11/the-new-economy-and-the-tariffs-and-tax-breaks-to-launch-it#more-168927

 

     Bottom line

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/11/09/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/11/09/buffett-valuation-indicator-october-2024

 

                John Mauldin injects some cognitive dissonance in the Trump euphoria.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/11/11/dogs-catching-cars-mauldin

 

                Ditto the Calculated Risk blogger.

            https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/economic-outlook-and-election.html

 

                Ditto ZeroHedge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/4-market-takeaways-us-election

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot press release (NYSE:HD): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.78 beats by $0.13.

Revenue of $40.2B (+6.6% Y/Y) beats by $980M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The search for St. Peter’s tomb.

            St. Peter's Basilica contains his tomb... right? Why there's still some doubt

 

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