The Morning Call--Will there be a peaceful transition of power?

 

The Morning Call

 

11/1/24

 

Next week I will be in California. I am not going to get up at 4AM to deliver this post. So I will be sending it the night before---meaning that the over night and early morning news will appear the following day.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/cool-earnings-hot-inflation-kill-goldilocks-narrative-stocks-gold-crypto-dump

 

Note: In yesterday’s pin action, the S&P broke a minor uptrend, but did so on a gap down open (which needs to be filled) and closed right on its 50 DMA which should provide some support. Absent that we could be looking at a reversal in momentum.

 

            Five charts for Halloween.

            https://www.ft.com/content/8fdfd551-34d7-4e6b-8d91-89b404e56fc4

 

            Flashing fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/flashing-fear

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The October Chicago PMI came in at 41.6 versus estimates of 47.0.

 

October nonfarm payrolls grew by 12,000 versus expectations of 113,000; the October unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jobs-shock-october-payrolls-huge-miss-private-payrolls-print-negative-first-time-2020

 

                        International

 

The October Japanese manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.2 versus forecasts of 49.0; the October Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.3 versus 49.7; the October UK manufacturing PMI was 49.9 versus 50.3.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Fade the election.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/31/part-2-debt-deficits-fade-election

 

              Hallelujah.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trumps-potential-treasury-pick-vows-spending-cuts-partnership-musk

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation doesn’t want to cooperate.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/31/inflation-doesnt-want-to-cooperate-pce-price-indices-for-core-core-services-and-durable-goods-worsen-further-mom/

 

 

            Recession

 

              Consumer spending driving solid economic growth.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/consumer-spending-drives-solid-us-economic-growth-in-q3/

 

            The Election

 

Election violence threatens dollar dominance. I think that the risk here is very real. This article implies that any disruptions in the electoral process will likely come from Trump. I disagree. I think it equally probable that the dems could either refuse to acknowledge a Trump win and seek to overturn it through nefarious means. In any case, I believe that the risk is not small. Let’s hope that I am wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-31/election-violence-risk-threatens-us-dollar-dominance?srnd=homepage-americas

 

The impact of uncertainty on the rest of the globe. Here is another article outlining potential problems arising from an undecided election. I don’t question that problems could arise. But once again the author seems to think that only Trump could precipitate any crisis while I think the risk could just as easily come from either side.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-31/us-election-chaos-would-leave-a-vacuum-in-the-world?srnd=homepage-americas

 

On a more upbeat note, Goldman thinks that we will know the winner of the election fairly quickly which would make the focus of uncertainty on the reaction of the losing side.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/election-night-what-will-we-know-and-when-will-we-know-it

 

            Civil Strife

 

              Preparing for war. Let’s hope this is just paranoia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/left-preparing-war-if-trump-wins

           

              But maybe not.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-dc-begins-boarding-ahead-election-over-social-unrest-fears

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) declares $0.99/share quarterly dividend, 4.2% increase from prior dividend of $0.95.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The difference between the prediction’s market and polling.

            https://sherwood.news/business/the-money-is-flooding-in-but-what-are-prediction-markets-truly-telling-us/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.