The Morning Call
11/15/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
S&P stalls.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-stalls-russell-wobbles-despite-inflow-mania
Is this rally in
need of a rest?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/red-sweep-reversals-0
Tariffs and the rally.
Q4 performance in
election years.
https://www.indexologyblog.com/2024/11/12/equity-exuberance-and-fixed-income-foreshadowing/
Today is the
largest November option expiration ever.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-2016-analogs-largest-november-opex-ever-sp-6000
Why the dollar
keeps getting stronger.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/business/strong-dollar-trump.html
Or not.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/massive-dollar-reversal-making
Bitcoin and the
$200,000 destination.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-and-ultimate-200k-destination
Three reasons for
the plunge in gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/three-reasons-behind-recent-plunge-gold
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
October retail
sales were up 0.4% versus estimates of up 0.3%; ex autos, they increased 0.1%
versus +0.3%.
The November NY
Fed manufacturing index came in at 31.2 versus predictions of -0.7.
International
Q3 Japanese GDP grew
0.2%, in line; the Q3 YoY price index was up 2.5% versus up 2.8%; Q3 capital
expenditures fell 0.2% in line; Q3 private consumption was up 0.9% versus
+0.2%; September industrial production was up 1.6% versus +1.4%.
Q3 UK GDP grew
0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%; Q3 YoY construction orders declined 9.4% versus
+17.0%; the September trade balance was -L16.3 billion versus -L16.2 billion;
September industrial production was -0.5% versus +0.1%.
October Chinese
YoY industrial production was up 5.3% versus expectations of +5.6%; October YoY
retail sales were up 4.8% versus +3.8%; October YoY fixed investment was up
3.4%, in line; the October unemployment rate was 5.0% versus +5.1%.
October German PPI
was up 1.6% versus forecasts of +1.4%.
Other
Jobless claims return to pre-hurricane trend.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/11/jobless-claims-complete-their-reversion.html
Monetary
Policy
What’s the Fed to do?
Fiscal
Policy
An argument for why my concern with deficit
spending is overblown.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/us-debt-is-risky-a-rant-about-evidence
Inflation
Trumponomics, inflation and interest rates.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-14-november-2024/
A plan to tame inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/plan-tame-inflation
Tariffs
China
is not a reason for across the board tariffs.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/11/china-isnt-an-incantation.html
Tariffs are taxes on us.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/11/on-trumps-proposed-across-the-board-tax-hike.html
Bottom line
Stocks aren’t
cheap.
https://sherwood.news/markets/sp500-stocks-high-premium/
Trumponomics
versus the EU
https://www.ft.com/content/51d839fb-b695-4fa8-8721-72062b9d561b
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Nike (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, an 8.1% increase
from prior dividend of $0.37.
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $2.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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