The Morning Call--Is the Fed still too tight

 

The Morning Call

 

11/21/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/missiles-michelle-missed-targets-spark-stock-slump-bitcoin-gold-jump

 

            The post-election playbook.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-big-tech-play-along-post-election-playbook

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus consensus of 220,000.

 

The November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was -5.5 versus predictions of +8.0.

 

                        International

 

The November UK industrial tends orders index came in at -19 versus estimates of -25.

 

                        Other

           

                          Q3 credit card balances, delinquencies and available credit.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/19/credit-card-delinquency-rates-balances-burden-and-available-credit-in-q3-2024/

 

                          Architecture billings moderated in October.

                         https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/11/aia-architecture-billings-moderate-in.html

 

                          More evidence of BLS jobs number overstatement.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/quarterly-qcew-data-provides-more-evidence-of-bls-jobs-overstatement/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Is the Fed still too tight?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-fed-policy-still-too-tight/ 

 

Tariffs

 

  Protectionism is even more idiotic than it looks.

  https://www.fff.org/explore-freedom/article/protectionism-is-more-idiotic-than-it-looks/

 

              Will Trump really pull the trigger on tariffs?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-may-not-need-pull-trigger-tariffs-economist-says

 

US companies stocking up ahead of Trump China tariffs. (Note: I expect that this will somewhat impact Q4 ’24 and Q1 ’25 GDP stats.)

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/american-companies-are-stocking-up-to-get-ahead-of-trumps-china-tariffs-c1ca4744?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Russia sends a message. Let’s hope these morons in Washington get it.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-hits-ukraine-icbm-first-time

 

      Investing

 

Where will the $2 trillion in money market funds go---if the Fed keeps lowering rates? But will it?

https://www.apolloacademy.com/fed-hikes-added-2-trillion-to-money-market-accounts/

           

            Outlook for S&P dividends in 2025.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/11/a-first-look-at-expected-quarterly.html

 

            Five investing impacts of a trade war.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/11/20/trade-war-5-investing-impacts

 

            More on valuations.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/are-u-s-stocks-overvalued/

 

            Bitcoin: the Golden Cross.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-golden-cross-trump-bump-and-overshoot

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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