The Morning Call--America's free lunch economy is over

 

The Morning Call

 

11/5/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bid-bitcoin-skids-traders-take-profits-trump-bets

 

            Trend spotting.

            Market Call: Trend Spotting

 

            Hedge funds pushing limits.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/all-hedge-funds-push-limits

 

            Goldman adjusts its position on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-makes-big-change-its-bullish-gold-trade-ahead-election

 

            Traders are shifting their bets.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-capitulate-long-rates-short-vix-positioning-election

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September factory orders fell 0,5% versus projections of -0.4%; ex transportation orders, they were up 0.1%, in line.

 

October light vehicle sales totaled 16.2 million versus consensus of 15.6 million.

 

                        International

 

The October German manufacturing PMI was 43.0 versus expectations of 42.6; the October EU manufacturing PMI was 46.0 versus 45.9.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              What happened to long and variable lags?

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/what-happened-to-long-and-variable-lags/

 

              Abundant reserves enabled a soft landing.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/11/abundant-reserves-enabled-soft-landing.html

              Two things we need from the Fed.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-04/the-federal-reserve-must-deliver-two-things-this-week?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Fiscal Policy

 

              One way road to crisis.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/11/04/one-way-road-crisis

 

              America’s free lunch economy is over.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-04/harris-or-trump-would-both-face-the-end-of-the-free-lunch-economy?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Recession

 

              Office delinquency rates spike.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/04/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-9-4-highest-since-worst-months-after-the-financial-crisis/

 

 

    Bottom line.

 

The case for a Market melt up. The more I think about it, the more I think the ‘Elon Musk slash-a-thon’ could be the operative scenario. If so, this forecast would be at risk.

            https://investorplace.com/2024/10/the-case-for-a-market-melt-up/

 

            Another bullish prediction.

            https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-election-year-seasonality-and-uncertainty

 

            Even more optimism.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d594a4a5-b22d-4dcd-8f49-6f8b2e8cdad0

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The eighth wonder of the ancient world.

            The eighth wonder of the ancient world may have an untouched tomb

 

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