The Morning Call
11/7/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/trump-quake-sparks-market-euphoria-gold-dips-dollar-rips
Note: as positive
as yesterday’s pin action was, the moonshot was done on a huge gap up open
which it almost surely be closed. The only question is timing. While I have my
eye on a couple of stocks that will benefit from a Trump presidency, I am
electing to be patient and await a pullback.
Yearend rally
starts today.
The great gold
puke?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/great-gold-puke
Long dollar the
shakiest of Trump trades.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/long-dollar-looks-shakiest-trump-trades
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 10.8% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.
International
September EU PPI was down 0.6%, in line.
The October German
services PMI came in at 51.6 versus forecasts of 51.4; the October composite
PMI was 48.6 versus 48.4; the October EU services PMI was 51.6 versus 51.2; the
October composite PMI was 50.0 versus 49.7.
Other
Monetary
Policy
Four questions the Fed faces.
Inflation
A look a multiple inflation indices.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/11/everyday-price-inflation-at-0-3-y-y
Recession
Update on the probability of recession
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/11/us-recession-odds-fall-with-fed-rate.html
The
Election
The aftermath.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-election-night-results-roll
Inflation risks are now even more underpriced.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-risks-are-now-even-more-woefully-underpriced
Bottom line
So far so good. At
least at this point, my concerns regarding potential civil disruption are not
being realized. Clearly a plus. That doesn't mean that there won’t be; but the
hope now has to be that (1) all that rhetoric about the existential threat to democracy
was just that---rhetoric---‘full of sound and fury, signifying nothing’ and (2)
that the dems recognize their agenda is at least partially flawed.
That said, it is
not all wine and roses. The US still faces a spending/deficit/debt problem that
won’t be solved by Trump’s stated campaign promises. Indeed, it will only be exacerbated.
That said, I am clinging to the hope that the recent Musk/Paulson comments are
a sign that Trump may be prepared to do some serious budget cutting---‘clinging
to the hope’ being the operative phrase. If that hope is misplaced then we are
likely looking at a period of rising inflation, higher interest rates and slowing
economic growth.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/what-a-trump-win-means-for-the-economy-50de4670?mod=economy_lead_pos1
More.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/how-will-trumps-election-win-change-the-macro-outlook/
Still more.
And more.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-stage-western-cilivization-dawns
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Automatic Data
Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) declares $1.54/share quarterly dividend, 10% increase from
prior dividend of $1.40.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/11/quotation-of-the-day-4820.html
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