The Morning Call---Don't bet on a continuing decline in inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

9/11/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bullion-bounce-banks-battered-brent-busts-debate

 

            Longer term Market techincals.

            S&P 500 - A Bullish And Bearish Analysis - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Gold techincals.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-debt-fears-chinese-buying-and-breakout-options

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 1.4% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

                          August CPI rose 0.2%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/core-inflation-comes-hotter-expected-collapsing-odds-50bps-rate-cut

 

                        International

 

July UK GDP grew 0.0% versus predictions of +0.2%; the July trade balance was -L7.5 billion versus -L4.8 billion; July industrial production fell 0.8% versus +0.3%; July YoY construction output was down 1.6% versus -1.0%.

 

                        Other

                       

                          Update on Q3 nowcast.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/09/nowcasts-updated

 

                          YoY lumber prices unchanged.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/update-lumber-prices-unchanged-yoy.html

           

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Waste of the day.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/waste-day-83-billion-disaster-funds-stuck-purgatory

 

            Inflation

 

              Don’t bet on a continuing decline in inflation.

              https://www.ft.com/content/696d6f5f-2691-44cb-9a77-3774e3795aa0

 

              Home affordability remains in crisis.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/new-home-affordability-crisis-enters.html

 

              Wholesale prices for used vehicles surged for second month.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/09/this-may-be-the-end-of-the-massive-deflation-in-used-vehicles-that-pushed-down-core-cpi-wholesale-prices-surge-for-2nd-month-amid-strong-sales-growth-tight-inventories/

 

 

            Recession

 

              Signs of no recession.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-questions-2/?src=news

 

              China is a major headwind to global growth.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/09/china-is-key-headwind-against-global.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Hard to be anything but defensive right now.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-hard-be-anything-defensive-right-now

 

            Investors must survive.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/09/10/investors-must-survive/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        What made Catherine the Great great?

            How Catherine really became 'The Great' (nationalgeographic.com)

 

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