The Morning Call---A word of caution versus rising odds of a melt up.

 

The Morning Call

 

9/20/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/delayed-reaction-buy-all-things-trade-engaged-after-fed-crisis-cut

 

            A word of caution.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/mixed-risk-appetite-signals-sharpen-debate-for-markets-outlook/

 

            Versus: rising odds of a melt up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/rising-odds-melt

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August existing home sales fell 2.5% versus estimates of up 0.9%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to.html

 

                          Fannie Mae remains gloomy about home sales.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/18/fannie-mae-gets-gloomier-about-home-sales-expects-buyers-strike-to-go-on-despite-big-drop-in-mortgage- rates-surge-of-listings/

 

 

The August leading economic indicators were down 0.2% versus predictions of -0.3%.

 

                        International

 

                          August Japanese CPI was up 0.5% versus consensus of +0.3%.

 

                          August German PPI was up 0.2% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

August UK retail sales were up 1.0% versus forecasts of +0.4%; ex fuel, they were up 1.1% versus +0.5%; September consumer confidence came in at -20 versus -13.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Inside the FOMC formal statement.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-by-50-basis-points-to-5-0-top-of-range-sees-additional-cut-of-50-basis-points-in-2024-qt-continues/

 

              The change in the Fed Funds rate versus where it should be.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/09/change-in-fed-funds-vs-where-the-fed-funds-should-be

 

                  A skeptics view of the Fed’s rate cut.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivots-panics

 

                  Bank of England leaves rates unchanged.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bank-of-england-holds-off-on-rate-cut-after-fed-goes-big-56a02809?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The ruling class can’t even get their pet projects right.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/big-oil-to-benefit-from-bidens-carbon-capture-tax-credits-report.html

 

            Recession

 

              The Fed has improved the odds of a soft landing.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-fed-has-significantly-improved-the-odds-of-a-soft-landing-3cbf486d?mod=economy_lead_pos5

 

     Bottom line

 

            What rate cuts mean for equity sectors.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/what-rate-cuts-could-mean-for-equity-sectors.html

 

            Dividend futures post FOMC meeting.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/dividend-futures-before-and-after-fed.html

 

            Solving problems by doing less not more.

            https://collabfund.com/blog/take-something-away/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

FedEx press release (NYSE:FDX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.60 misses by $1.17.

Revenue of $21.6B (-0.5% Y/Y) misses by $310M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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