The Morning Call---China aggressively eases monetary policy

 

The Morning Call

 

9/24/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-last-weeks-powell-apalooza-markets-calm-weeks-macro-storm

 

            Margin debt went down in August.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/09/20/margin-debt-down-1-7-in-august-receding-from-last-months-high

 

            We got the rate cut; now what?

            Analysis Of The Market As The Fed Cuts Rates - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            A banner year for gold.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/gold-is-enjoying-a-banner-year-despite-softer-inflation/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September flash manufacturing PMI came in at 47.0 versus estimates of 48.5; the flash services PMI was 55.4 versus 55.3; the flash composite PMI was 54.4 versus 54.3.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-manufacturing-pmi-plunges-15-month-lows-prices-are-soaring-again

 

                        International

 

The September Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus predictions of 49.9; the flash services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus 53.2.

 

The September German business climate index was 85.4 versus consensus of 86.0; the September current conditions index was 84.4 versus 86.1.

 

                        Other

 

                          LA port traffic up sharply YoY in August.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/la-ports-inbound-traffic-increased.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Fact checking central bank fairy tales. (must read)

              https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-up-with-fed-talk-central-banks.html

 

              China aggressively eases monetary policy to counter weak economy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-panics-cuts-multiple-rates-and-reserve-ratio-requirements-goes-all-prop-stocks

 

            Inflation

 

This is a nice qualitative analysis of why inflation is behind us; but the author offers nothing quantitative to support his thesis.

https://edgyoptimist.substack.com/p/bye-bye-inflation-we-hardly-knew?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2450694&post_id=149165852&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

 

            Recession

 

              The labor market is strengthening.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/strong-economy-but-weak-labor-market/

 

              The rise in median household income.

  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/09/guest-contribution-as-predicted-by-motio-estimates-real-median-household-income-rose-in-2023-for-the-first-time-since-2019

 

              RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/09/23/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

              The eurozone faces contraction.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/eurozone-faces-contraction-as-olympics-shine-fades-d6670e64?mod=economy_lead_story

 

                         

                        Civil Strife

 

              Crisis in the Supreme Court.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supreme-crisis-chief-justice-john-roberts

 

                        Geopolitics

 

              Middles East war escalating.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thousands-lebanese-flee-war-zone-israel-death-toll-reaches-100-single-day

 

 

     Bottom line.

 

            An analysis of the yield curve before and after the rate cut.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/21/the-yield-curve-before-and-after-the-rate-cut-short-term-yields-fell-but-longer-term-yields-rose-perhaps-on-inflation-concerns-as-monetary-policy-loosens-in-a-decent-economy/

 

                        Another vote for fear of rising inflation.

            https://alephblog.com/2024/09/19/upside-down/

 

                        Will lower rates lead to a dash from cash?

            https://www.ft.com/content/be8f5040-9fac-4ab2-aba8-10de10e90ca6

 

            Instabilities in the system.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/23/behind-summer-sandpile

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How gratitude can impact success.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/09/how-gratitude-transforms-trading.html

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/09/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-1066.html

 

 

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